东吴证券晨会纪要-20250605

Group 1: Macro Strategy Insights - The historical review of global trade indicates that exchange rates and non-tariff barriers may become more critical tools in trade confrontations, potentially replacing tariffs [1][10] - Domestic foreign trade enterprises believe that due to fundamental conflicts, the Sino-US trade negotiations may experience significant ups and downs, necessitating ongoing risk management for exports to the US [1][10] - If tariffs fail to achieve their primary objectives, the US government may resort to more challenges in non-tariff barriers and exchange rates, drawing parallels from past trade competition phases [1][10] Group 2: Currency and Economic Indicators - The short-term outlook suggests that the RMB central parity may gradually decline to the range of 7.17-7.18, with expectations of dual-directional fluctuations in the USD/CNY exchange rate [2][12] - The ECI index indicates a slight recovery in supply and demand, but the manufacturing PMI remains in a contraction zone, reflecting weak overall economic momentum [14] - The significant drop in US imports in April suggests that the "import rush" effect from tariff policies may be waning, impacting trade dynamics [16][17] Group 3: Fixed Income and ABS Market - The current city investment ABS market is primarily dominated by enterprise ABS products, with a weighted average coupon rate around 3.25%, which is relatively low compared to other credit bonds [3][18] - The ABS market shows a significant mid-to-long-term characteristic, aligning with the cash flow characteristics of underlying assets like infrastructure projects [18][19] - The distribution of ABS products indicates a concentration in high-quality issuers, with a notable presence of AAA and AA+ rated products, reflecting a focus on credit quality and risk management [19] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - China Ping An is expected to maintain a stable profit forecast, with projected net profits of 135.2 billion, 154.4 billion, and 177 billion RMB for 2025-2027, indicating a low valuation relative to its peers [6] - Nvidia's FY2026 Q1 report shows a revenue of 44.06 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 69.2%, driven by strong demand in the data center business, despite challenges from H20 restrictions [7][8]