光大证券晨会速递-20250605

Group 1: Company Analysis - Gu Ming (1364.HK) is a leading brand in affordable freshly made tea drinks, benefiting from a strong cold chain supply chain advantage and a steady expansion strategy through regional penetration [1] - The company has significant room for store expansion and plans to introduce coffee products to further drive same-store sales growth [1] - Projected net profits for Gu Ming from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 1.961 billion, 2.356 billion, and 2.761 billion yuan respectively, translating to EPS of 0.82, 0.99, and 1.16 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 31X, 25X, and 22X [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The coal, float glass, and fuel refining industries are expected to experience negative year-on-year growth, while the cement industry is projected to see positive profit growth [2] - The pork price is anticipated to remain low and fluctuate, as the number of breeding sows has stabilized, indicating a balanced supply and demand by Q4 2025 [2] - Economic data shows signs of stabilization, leading to a reduction in infrastructure support expectations, which has adjusted the building decoration industry to a neutral signal [2] Group 3: Market Trends - In May 2025, the number of new stock listings decreased, with a total of 6 new stocks raising 3.456 billion yuan, a 58.20% decrease from the previous month [3] - The average first-day increase for new stocks on the main board was 110.58%, while the double innovation board saw an average increase of 140.15% [3] - The monthly return rate for publicly offered REITs was 3.71%, with the weighted REITs index closing at 139.99 on May 31, 2025 [4]