镍不锈钢早报：镍区间震荡格局不改-20250605

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel - Rolling short selling [1] - Stainless steel - Hold [1] - Zinc - Bearish outlook [3] 2. Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows a pessimistic economic outlook, with increased policy uncertainty and price pressures. Nickel remains in a range - bound pattern. Nickel ore prices are seasonally weak, and the overall supply of nickel is in surplus. Demand is weak, with the main operating range between 118,000 - 133,000 yuan, and the core operating range between 120,000 - 127,000 yuan [1][2] Zinc - From January to April, the revenue and profit of large - scale non - ferrous metal industrial enterprises increased. Zinc supply is generally loose, while demand has some resilience but is expected to be weak in the short term. Overall, it is bearish [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - For nickel and stainless steel, the Fed's "Beige Book" on June 4 shows that US economic activity has declined slightly, with increased policy uncertainty and price pressures. Some regions' enterprises increased procurement due to tariffs, and the residential real estate market was basically flat [1] - For zinc, from January to April, 11,945 large - scale non - ferrous metal industrial enterprises had a revenue of 3.08779 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.0%. The revenue profit margin was 4.15%, 0.39 percentage points higher than the same period last year [3] Supply - Nickel: Philippine nickel ore shipments and domestic arrivals have increased, and nickel ore prices have weakened seasonally. Domestic nickel - iron production has slightly decreased, while Indonesian nickel - iron production has increased rapidly (year - on - year increase over 30%, month - on - month increase over 10%). Domestic nickel - iron imports and total supply are high, remaining in surplus. Electrolytic nickel production has a small month - on - month decrease but a year - on - year increase of over 45% [1] - Zinc: During the narrow - range fluctuation of zinc prices, the profit per ton of mining enterprises is about 4,000 yuan/ton. The processing fees in the north and south have returned to 3,500 yuan/ton. Both integrated and smelting enterprises will maintain high production, and the supply of zinc ingots is generally loose [3] Demand - Nickel: In the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the cost of nickel is about 127,000 yuan. The demand support for downstream nickel sulfate is about 126,700 yuan/ton, and the profit threshold for external procurement manufacturers has dropped to 133,000 yuan/ton. Nickel - iron and stainless - steel integrated manufacturers previously had high stainless - steel production, but nickel - iron profits have shrunk since May, which may affect stainless - steel production. Overall, demand is weak [2] - Zinc: Galvanized production capacity has expanded, but utilization and output are low, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low. Zinc oxide's upward trend is due to seasonal demand, with limited upside. Die - casting alloy production has increased, but there is an expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates. Overall, short - term zinc demand is difficult to improve significantly, but there is still resilience [4] Conclusion - Nickel and stainless steel: The main operating range is between 118,000 - 133,000 yuan, and the core operating range is between 120,000 - 127,000 yuan. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous short positions and roll short after rebounds [2] - Zinc: The impact of tariffs has temporarily subsided. Short - term supply is stable with a slight increase, and the demand peak season has passed. Manufacturers are pessimistic about the terminal, so it is bearish overall. It is recommended to short with a light position [4][5]