焦煤：反弹还是反转?

Report Overview - Report Title: "Coking Coal: Rebound or Reversal?" [2] - Analyst: Cao Ying, Chief Analyst of Ferrous Metals at Guotou Futures Research Institute [3] - Date: June 4, 2025 [3] Report Core View - The fundamental situation of coking coal has not undergone a fundamental reversal, facing concerns about downstream production cuts, rejection of restocking at all links, and a continued oversupply situation at the production and import ends, which is continuously verified by the inventory accumulation trend. However, there are indeed some marginal changes, with the market most concerned about the subsequent impact of the dismissal of the Mongolian Prime Minister [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Current Market: Invariance vs. Change - The fundamentals of coking coal remain unchanged with downstream demand concerns, rejection of restocking, and oversupply, but there are marginal changes such as the Mongolian Prime Minister dismissal event [6]. - There is a reduction in domestic coking coal supply. Some private mines have minor production cuts, and during the June safety production month, state - owned large mines have some top - bin production cuts, and some mines are shut down for rectification due to accidents [9]. Impact of Other Factors - The strong momentum of export growth has weakened [12]. - Thermal coal is about to enter the demand peak season. The 5500K port price of thermal coal has been weakly stable at around 619 yuan/ton recently, with a year - end decline of 150 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decline of 260 yuan/ton. The arrival of the thermal coal consumption peak season may support the valuation of some blended coking coal [13].