宝城期货国债期货早报-20250605

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", due to rising tariff risks and weakening macro - data [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". In the short term, the upward and downward space of bond futures is limited, and they will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, the short - term and medium - term trends are "oscillation", the intraday trend is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with a general view of "oscillation". The core logic is the rising tariff risk and weakening macro - data [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the medium - term view is "oscillation", with a reference view of "oscillation". The core logic includes: the bond futures continued narrow - range oscillation and consolidation; the latest Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped significantly, indicating a weakened export rush effect in May and great pressure on future export orders; in June, macro - policies are expected to focus on stabilizing growth and adjusting the structure, and the weakening of macro - economic indicators supports bond futures prices; attention can be paid to the financial policies at the Lujiazui Forum on June 18; the uncertainty of the tariff outlook has deepened, the main tone of moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged, and the market's expectation of future loose policies will rise, so bond futures have strong bottom support [5].