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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:绿色金融与新能源-20250605
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-05 01:50

Overall Report Information - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated June 5, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel: Short - term cost provides support, but weak expectations put downward pressure [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is a game between negative feedback and production cuts, and steel prices will fluctuate within a range [2][5] Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,590, with a change of 1,340 compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 117,416, a decrease of 43,954 from T - 1 [5] - For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,720, up 90 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 95,686, an increase of 20,639 from T - 1 [5] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has increased the resource tax rates for nickel products, with nickel ore, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte resource tax rates adjusted to floating ranges of 14% - 19%, 5% - 7%, 5% - 7%, and 4.5% - 6.5% respectively [5] - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [6] - The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project successfully produced nickel - iron, and an overseas nickel smelter has resumed production [8] - The Philippines is discussing a ban on nickel ore exports, and there are market rumors about an export ban starting in June 2025, but the authenticity is yet to be verified [8] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which may affect 11 - 13 tons of 300 - series production [9] Lithium Carbonate Core View - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not improved, and the rebound space may be limited [2][11] Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2507 contract was 61,080, up 1,140 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 413,239, an increase of 108,078 from T - 1 [11] Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased by 39 yuan/ton. The Chinese government is organizing a new - energy vehicle promotion campaign in rural areas [12][13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - Industrial silicon: Subject to emotional disturbances, the upside space is limited - Polysilicon: It has a weak fundamental pattern [2][15] Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2507 contract for industrial silicon was 7,280, up 210 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 806,934, an increase of 421,379 from T - 1 [15] - The closing price of the PS2507 contract for polysilicon was 35,055, up 695 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 262,747, an increase of 118,067 from T - 1 [15] Macro and Industry News - Junda Co., Ltd., a photovoltaic company, plans to build a 5GW N - type high - efficiency photovoltaic cell production base in Turkey [16][17] Trend Intensity - Nickel: 0 - Stainless steel: 0 - Lithium carbonate: - 1 - Industrial silicon: - 1 - Polysilicon: - 1 [10][13][17]