长江期货黑色产业日报-20250605

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overall: The report analyzes the market conditions of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, suggesting that the prices of these commodities will generally show a volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [1][3][4]. - Steel: The price of rebar futures rebounded significantly on Wednesday. The increase was driven by the rise in coking coal prices. The current supply - demand situation is turning loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore market is affected by macro - news. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730 [1]. - Coking Coal: Affected by market news and the need to repair the basis, the coking coal futures price rose significantly, but the spot market lacks substantial support. The supply - demand contradiction is deepening, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly [3]. - Coke: Affected by the coking coal market, the coke price fluctuated. The supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and there is still downward pressure on the price [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Steel - Price: The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3,120 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 146 (-16) [1]. - Fundamentals: The recent production and sales data of rebar are good, and the apparent demand remains stable. However, the seasonal decline in demand is only a matter of time. The profit of long - process steel mills is good, while that of short - process steel mills is poor. It is expected that the steel production will decline steadily, and inventory depletion will slow down or accumulate slightly [1]. - Outlook: The current futures price of rebar has fallen near the long - process cost, and the static valuation is at a low level. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [1]. Iron Ore - Price: On Wednesday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated strongly. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 733 yuan/wet ton (+6), the Platts 62% index was 96.35 US dollars/ton (+1.00), and the monthly average was 96.00 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 70 yuan/ton (-2) [1]. - Supply and Demand: The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,830.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101.5. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,620.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 292.40. The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel enterprises was 241.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69 [1]. - Outlook: The price is mainly affected by macro - news. The high - output transportation at the end of the fiscal year of overseas mainstream mines will generally take effect in early July. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to decline, and the price will fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Coking Coal - Price: Affected by market news and the need to repair the basis, the coking coal futures price rose significantly on Wednesday, but the spot market lacks substantial support [3]. - Supply and Demand: Some coal mines in the main production areas have increased regional production cuts due to safety inspections and inventory pressure, but the overall production capacity release is still relatively stable. The inventory pressure of coal mines is gradually transmitted to the middle and lower reaches. The import volume of Mongolian coal is restricted by weak demand, and the inventory in the supervision area continues to accumulate to a high level, putting pressure on traders' quotations. The negative feedback in the coke market continues, and coke enterprises maintain a low level of raw material inventory, mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The molten iron output of steel mills has declined from a high level, and the raw material price - cutting intention has increased, intensifying the game between coking and steel enterprises [3]. - Outlook: The supply - demand contradiction in the coking coal market is gradually deepening, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to focus on the supply - side news disturbances, the profit repair rhythm of coking and steel enterprises, and the impact of imported coal cost changes on the domestic market sentiment [3]. Coke - Price: Affected by the coking coal market, the coke price fluctuated on Wednesday, but the supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved [4]. - Supply and Demand: The production rhythm of coke enterprises in the main production areas remains stable, and some regions maintain normal production restrictions, but the overall capacity utilization rate has not changed significantly. Recently, the coke inventory shows regional differentiation, and the inventory pressure in the production area is gradually emerging. The trading volume in the port trade link remains low due to weak market sentiment. The terminal steel market has entered the seasonal consumption off - season, the molten iron output of steel mills has clearly peaked and declined, and the procurement enthusiasm has significantly weakened, mainly for rigid replenishment [4]. - Outlook: There is still downward pressure on the coke price. The current market game focus is on the matching degree between the unbalanced distribution of industrial chain profits and the expectation of terminal demand recovery. If the steel sales continue to be weak, the negative feedback transmission effect may further intensify the coke price adjustment [4]. 4. Industry News - Weather: From June 4th to 5th, most parts of the country will be sunny with little rain. Starting from the day after tomorrow, large - scale rainfall will occur in Jianghan, Jianghuai, Jiangnan, and South China, with severe local rainfall and strong convective weather [5]. - Price Adjustment: Some steel mills in Hebei have proposed to cut the coke price by the third round. The price of tamping wet - quenched coke will be reduced by 50 yuan/ton, and that of tamping dry - quenched coke will be reduced by 55 yuan/ton. The price of top - charging wet - quenched coke will be reduced by 70 yuan/ton, and that of top - charging dry - quenched coke will be reduced by 75 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on June 6, 2025 [5]. - Project Progress: On June 4th local time, Hu Wangming, the Party Secretary and Chairman of Baowu, inspected the Ashburton iron ore project in Australia. The project is in the production capacity ramping - up stage and aims to achieve an annual full - system capacity of 30 million tons in the third quarter of this year [5]. - Production Resumption: On June 4th, a 2500m³ blast furnace and supporting rolling mill of Shougang Shuigang resumed production, with a daily increase of 0.6 million tons of construction steel production [5]. - Urban Renovation: In 2025, the country plans to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to April, 5,679 old urban residential areas have started renovation [5].