PVC：短期不追空，趋势仍有压力

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, do not chase short positions in PVC, but there is still pressure in the long - term trend. PVC has a downward drive and needs to compress profits and reduce supply to achieve supply - demand balance. However, due to its low valuation, short - sellers have a strong willingness to take profits, so it's not advisable to chase short positions [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price of PVC is 4,834 yuan, the East China spot price is 4,680 yuan, the basis is - 154 yuan, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 37 yuan. The PVC spot market is mainly oscillating and stabilizing. Affected by the black market sentiment in the afternoon, the price rose during the session. The supply fundamentals remain unchanged, the cost side is weak, and the long - term demand is uncertain. The spot transaction center has limited fluctuations. The ex - warehouse price of calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC in East China is 4,620 - 4,750 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 4,800 - 5,050 yuan/ton [1] Market Condition Analysis - High - output and high - inventory structure: The high - output and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to alleviate. The current northwest chlor - alkali integration still has profits. The market has been shorting chlor - alkali profits, causing the PVC futures price to hit a new low this year. The high - output pattern continues as the PVC maintenance volume is lower than that in 2023. The cost of chlor - alkali has declined, and the demand for caustic soda in 2025 is well - supported with high profits. The chlor - alkali industry chain uses alkali to supplement chlorine, increasing the difficulty of large - scale production cuts due to PVC losses. In addition, there will be more capacity put into production in the future, with an expected 1.1 million tons of new capacity to be put into production from June to July [2] - Inventory and demand: The pressure of high inventory persists. The export demand can only relieve it temporarily. In 2025, the competition pressure in the PVC export market has increased, and exports are still affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. Although overseas restocking can quickly reduce PVC inventory in the short - term, the sustainability of exports remains to be seen. Domestically, the demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises have a low willingness to stock up [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, with the value range of [- 2,2]. - 2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [4]