宝城期货煤焦早报-20250605

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of both coking coal and coke 2509 contracts is fluctuating, the medium - term view is downward, and the intraday view is fluctuating strongly. The overall reference view is weak operation [1]. - For coking coal, due to increased supply disturbances, the futures contract rebounded from a low level, but the supply problem needs actual data verification. If the supply concern is disproven, it is expected to remain at a low level in the medium - and long - term [1][5]. - For coke, although the supply - demand pattern has no obvious change, the uncertainty in the coking coal supply end has increased the market's long - short game. If the expected coking coal supply contraction is disproven, coke will return to a weak pattern [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Price Performance: On the night of June 4, the coking coal 2509 contract fluctuated and adjusted at a low level without further rebound. On June 3, the JM2509 contract once fell to 709 yuan/ton, in a historical low - level range [5]. - Supply Factors: In June, China entered the safety production month, and safety and environmental protection issues began to attract market attention. The decline in domestic coal prices has put pressure on Mongolian coal imports. In May, the cumulative number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port was 21,166, a 3.5% decrease from April and an 18.8% decrease from the same period last year [5]. - Investment Suggestion: In the near term, it is recommended to observe carefully and focus on the supply situation [5]. Coke - Price Performance: On the night of June 4, the main coke contract declined slightly and did not continue the upward trend during the day session. The latest quoted price of the standard - grade coke at Rizhao Port for flat - position closing is 1340 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt is about 1476 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply - Demand and Market Situation: The supply - demand pattern of coke has no obvious change, but the uncertainty in the coking coal supply end has increased the long - short game in the market, significantly increasing the volatility of coking coal and coke futures [7]. - Investment Suggestion: Closely monitor the subsequent production volume and Mongolian coal imports, and mainly observe carefully in the short term [7].