宝城期货原油早报-20250605

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The core view is that the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being mainly oscillatory and intraday showing a tendency of weak oscillation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Time - Cycle Viewpoints - The short - term view of crude oil 2507 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1]. 3.2 Price and Driving Logic - As the US debt crisis approaches in June, the "gray rhino" effect may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the pace of production increase, with an additional increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July. It is speculated that the remaining voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day may be completely cancelled by the end of October. After the geopolitical factors are digested, the domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices have begun to give back premiums [5]. - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract showed a weakly oscillatory trend, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.07% to 462.6 yuan per barrel. It is expected that the oil price on Thursday may maintain a weakly oscillatory trend [5]. 3.3 Fluctuation Criteria - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The end price is the closing price of the day's daytime session. A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is weakly oscillatory, an increase of 0 - 1% is strongly oscillatory, and an increase of more than 1% is a rise. The terms "strongly/weakly oscillatory" only apply to intraday views [2][3][4].