宏源期货聚酯早报-20250605

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The ethylene glycol market is expected to maintain a slow downward trend in the short - term due to factors such as polyester production cuts and weakening downstream demand [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Upstream Cost - As of June 4, 2025, the spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $562.63 per ton, up 0.18% from the previous value; the price index of ethylene in Northeast Asia was $781 per ton, unchanged from the previous value; the ex - factory average price of ethylene oxide in East China was 6,300 yuan per ton, unchanged; the spot price of methanol was 2,272.5 yuan per ton, unchanged; the pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia was 290 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - As of June 4, 2025, the DCE main EG contract closing price was 4,292 yuan per ton, down 0.33% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,288 yuan per ton, down 0.92%; the DCE near - month EG contract closing price was 4,288 yuan per ton, down 2.32%; the settlement price was 4,288 yuan per ton, down 2.48%; the market intermediate price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,480 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of domestic ethylene glycol was 4,425 yuan per ton, down 0.56% [1] - The near - far month price difference was 0 yuan per ton, a decrease of 69 yuan per ton from the previous value; the basis was 133 yuan per ton, a decrease of 11 yuan per ton from the previous value [1] 3.3 Operating Conditions - As of June 4, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol was 50.18%, down 0.75 percentage points from the previous value; the operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol was 51.78%, unchanged; the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 47.86%, down 1.83 percentage points [1] - The load rate of the PTA industrial chain's polyester factory was 89.63%, down 0.08 percentage points; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 69.80%, unchanged [1] 3.4 Cash Flow Situation - As of June 4, 2025, the after - tax gross profit of MTO to MEG was - 1,540.34 yuan per ton, a decrease of 129.39 yuan per ton from the previous value; the after - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthesis gas method was 680.97 yuan per ton, a decrease of 53.10 yuan per ton from the previous value [1] 3.5 Polyester Prices - As of June 4, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,925 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price index of polyester POY was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,515 yuan per ton, up 0.15%; the price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,920 yuan per ton, down 0.67% [1] 3.6 Equipment Information - A 904,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in East China has completed maintenance and resumed normal operation; another 400,000 - ton/year plant is expected to shut down for maintenance in the near future [2] 3.7 Market Trends and Strategies - On June 4, the ethylene glycol market was weak in the morning, with the basis showing a weak trend. The afternoon session saw a small rebound, and the market sentiment was slightly warmer [2] - The downstream polyester market has seen production cuts, with the sales of polyester filaments, staple fibers, and chips decreasing by 36.03%, 59.67%, and 49.29% respectively. The market is expected to remain weak in the short - term [2]