工业硅、多晶硅日评：市场信心较差工业硅价格持续下探，多晶硅低位整理-20250605

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The silicon market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. Both the futures and spot prices are declining in tandem. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, and the bottom of silicon prices is difficult to determine. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to gradually take profit on previous short positions and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. For polysilicon, it is advisable to short on rebounds due to the weak fundamentals and the difficulty of an upward trend in the short - term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Changes: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) decreased by 0.61% to 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) remained flat at 8,850 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price increased by 2.97% to 7,280 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply Side: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost inversion. In the southwest production area, although the wet season is approaching, there is a lack of confidence in the future market, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient willingness to resume production. The overall start - up rate decreased [1]. - Demand Side: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction state, and the resumption of production might be postponed. The organic silicon industry had a strong willingness to reduce production to support prices, but demand was weak. The silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed, and the downstream had insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. - Investment Strategy: It is recommended to gradually take profit on previous short positions and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds, and continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - Price Changes: The price of N - type polysilicon materials remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price increased by 2.02% to 35,055 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply Side: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction state, and some plants might have new production capacity put into operation. The output was expected to be within 100,000 tons [1]. - Demand Side: The photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, continuous decline in the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, and weak market transactions [1]. - Investment Strategy: The strategy is to short on rebounds, and continuously monitor changes in the supply side [1]. Other Information - A monomer enterprise in North China started a 15 - day maintenance, which was expected to affect the DMC output by about 4,000 tons [1]. - Bangjie Co., Ltd. decided to continue the suspension of its battery cell production line to avoid expanding losses [1]. - In May, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, with the construction industry at 51.0% and the service industry at 50.2%. Some industries were in a high - prosperity range, while others were below the critical point [1].