宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250605

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks and API inventory decline drive up oil prices, while multiple PX device restarts increase supply, reducing PX de - stocking volume. With strong polyester production cut sentiment, short - term PX price and PXN bottom have support, and PX will continue to de - stock in the next few months [2] - PTA de - stocking slows, downstream resists high basis, and PTA spot basis weakens. In the short - term, PTA price follows the cost side. Polyester new capacity runs stably with high start - up, but polyester production cut is being executed, and PTA price will run in a range [2] - Polyester filament start - up load declines, market supply increases slightly, and foreign trade has more quotes and samples. PTA device maintenance is still high, and polyester starts production cut [2] - Polyester bottle - chip market is weak, with supply quotes down and low downstream procurement intention. Bottle - chip start - up declines slightly, and downstream digests inventory [2] - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Upstream: On June 4, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $62.85/barrel (- 0.88%), Brent crude oil was $64.86/barrel (- 1.17%), naphtha in CFR Japan was $562.63/ton (+ 0.18%), and isomeric xylene FOB Korea was $699/ton (- 0.07%) [1] - PX: PX CFR China main port was $825/ton (+ 0.26%), CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,578 yuan/ton (+ 0.83%), and settlement price was 6,568 yuan/ton (- 1.02%) [1] - PTA: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,670 yuan/ton (+ 0.91%), settlement price was 4,670 yuan/ton (- 0.81%), domestic PTA spot price was 4,863 yuan/ton (- 1.06%) [1] - PR: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5,926 yuan/ton (+ 0.24%), settlement price was 5,924 yuan/ton (- 1.00%), polyester bottle - chip in the East China market was 5,920 yuan/ton (- 0.67%) [1] - Downstream: CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,515 yuan/ton (+ 0.15%), and polyester chip was 5,890 yuan/ton (- 0.51%) [2] Spread Information - On June 4, 2025, PTA near - far month spread was 212 yuan/ton (increased by 32 yuan/ton), PTA basis was 200 yuan/ton (decreased by 77 yuan/ton), PX basis was 198 yuan/ton (decreased by 54 yuan/ton), PR basis in East China was - 6 yuan/ton (decreased by 54 yuan/ton), and in South China was 94 yuan/ton (decreased by 24 yuan/ton) [1] Production and Sales and Start - up Rate - Start - up Rate: On June 4, 2025, PX start - up rate was 81.45% (unchanged), PTA factory load rate was 80.84% (unchanged), polyester factory was 89.63% (- 0.08%), bottle - chip factory was 83.82% (unchanged), and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms were 69.80% (unchanged) [1] - Production and Sales Rate: On June 4, 2025, polyester filament production and sales rate was 36% (- 3%), polyester staple fiber was 60% (- 12%), and polyester chip was 49% (- 52%) [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest plans to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] Important News - On June 4, geopolitical risks drove up oil prices, and API inventory decline was favorable to oil prices. Multiple PX device restarts increased supply, and polyester production cut sentiment was strong [2] - PTA de - stocking slowed, downstream resisted high basis, and polyester new capacity ran stably with high start - up [2] - Polyester filament start - up load declined, foreign trade had more quotes and samples, and PTA device maintenance was still high [2] - Polyester bottle - chip market was weak, with supply quotes down and low downstream procurement intention [2] Trading Strategy - PTA, PX, and PR contracts closed lower on June 4. Due to geopolitical and economic concerns, international oil prices fell. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run weakly (PX view score: - 1, PTA view score: - 1, PR view score: - 1) [2]