生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250605

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the long - term, hog prices may reach new lows [4] - Based on sow and piglet data, hog supplies in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 will be abundant, so there is no basis for a significant increase in hog prices [4] - Demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for hog prices, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly [4] - Although the current hog slaughter weight has slightly decreased, it remains at a high level, which is bearish for the future market. If there is a concentrated weight reduction later, hog prices may hit new lows [4] - Due to high uncertainty in the long - term spot price reaching new lows and weak short - term market weight - reduction drivers, and the futures price being in a relatively reasonable range, it is recommended to wait and see [4] Summary by Directory I. Market Overview - On June 4, the number of registered hog futures warehouse receipts was 0 hands [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly about futures - spot convergence and delivery game. The far - month contracts are oscillating weakly due to the expected decline in spot prices and possible increase in future slaughter volume [2] - The main contract (LH2509) added 1,200 lots today, with a position of about 78,600 lots. The highest price was 13,520 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,390 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,490 yuan/ton [2] - The national average hog slaughter price on June 4 was 14.28 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg (-0.56%) from the previous day. In Henan, it was 14.29 yuan/kg, down 0.14 yuan/kg (-0.97%); in Sichuan, it was 14.11 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg (-0.56%) [6] - Among futures prices, the 07 - contract price increased by 45 yuan/ton (0.34%), while the 09 - contract price decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) [6] - The main basis in Henan was 800 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton (-13.04%) from the previous day [6] II. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the hog supply from March to December is expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical data and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3] - Bearish factors include: the breeding side has not yet reduced the hog weight, which is actually bearish for the future market; the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons, so demand support for hog prices is limited [3] - Bullish factors include: there is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, which can support hog prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter volume, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak hog consumption season [3] III. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the long - term, there may be new lows [4] - Due to high uncertainty and weak short - term weight - reduction drivers, and the futures price being in a reasonable range, it is recommended to wait and see [4]