五矿期货农产品早报-20250605

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean and meal market is currently in a situation where the cost of the external market is likely to rise but difficult to fall, while the domestic pressure is gradually increasing. The soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market is expected to be volatile. Although there is some support in the short - term, if the production continues to recover in the medium - term, the price will still be under pressure [7][9][10]. - The sugar price is likely to weaken in the future as the international supply tension eases and domestic import supply is expected to increase [12][13]. - The cotton price is expected to continue its volatile trend. The fundamental situation has slightly improved, but the overall commodity market sentiment is negative [15][16][17]. - The egg price is expected to be weakly stable in the short - term. The pressure of new production and the off - season consumption needs to be hedged by the continuous and effective elimination of old chickens [19][20]. - The pig price is likely to continue to decline in the short - term due to oversupply, but the downward space of the spot and futures is relatively limited in the near future [22][23]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - Important Information: On Wednesday, US soybeans rose slightly driven by crude oil, but the increase was limited by good planting and weather conditions. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell due to high crushing volume and sufficient supply. Last week, port soybean inventories reached 7 million tons, and oil - mill soybean meal inventories were 290,000 tons. It is expected that both will continue to accumulate. The US soybean production area will have good rainfall in the next two weeks, and the 25/26 US soybean area will decline [2][3]. - Trading Strategy: The cost range of far - month soybean meal contracts such as 09 is 2850 - 3000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to possible weather stimuli in the external market when the 09 contract is at the lower end of the cost range, and to pay attention to whether domestic pressure and bullish factors have been fully traded when it is at the upper end [5]. Oils - Important Information: In May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 3.53%, and exports increased by 17.9%. The estimated palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia in the 2024/25 season remains unchanged from the previous forecast. Brazil's estimated soybean exports in June are lower than last year [7]. - Trading Strategy: The oil market is expected to be volatile. Negative factors include the downward trend of the crude oil center, the obvious recovery of palm oil production, and the possible lower - than - expected US biodiesel policy. Positive factors include low inventories in some regions and India's reduction of edible oil import tariffs [10]. Sugar - Important Information: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly. In May, the single - month sugar sales in Guangxi decreased year - on - year, while those in Yunnan increased. The industrial inventories in Guangxi decreased year - on - year, while those in Yunnan increased slightly [12]. - Trading Strategy: The international sugar supply tension has eased, and domestic import supply is expected to increase. The sugar price is likely to weaken in the future [13]. Cotton - Important Information: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated weakly. As of June 1, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 66%, and the budding rate was 8% [15]. - Trading Strategy: The cotton market's fundamental situation has slightly improved, but the overall commodity market sentiment is negative. The cotton price is expected to continue its volatile trend in the short - term [16][17]. Eggs - Important Information: The national egg price was generally stable with minor fluctuations. The supply was stable, and the digestion speed in some downstream markets slowed down slightly. Most regions had little inventory pressure [19]. - Trading Strategy: The elimination of old chickens has increased slightly. The egg price is expected to be weakly stable in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the continuity and intensity of the elimination of old chickens to determine whether production capacity can be effectively reduced [20]. Pigs - Important Information: Domestic pig prices generally fell. The supply in the market was sufficient, but the downstream demand was weak [22]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term spot performance is weak, but the downward space of the spot and futures is relatively limited in the near future. It is recommended not to go long, and there is no need to chase short positions recently. The strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [23].