棕榈油：产地压力分歧较大，震荡磨底，豆油：豆系驱动不强，震荡偏弱

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is experiencing significant divergence in pressure at the origin, and is in a phase of oscillating at the bottom [1]. - The driving force of the soybean system for soybean oil is weak, and it is showing an oscillating and weakening trend [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 8,130 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.81%, and (night session) was 8,118 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.15%. Soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 7,688 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%, and (night session) was 7,666 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.29%. Rapeseed oil's closing price (day session) was 9,101 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.84%, and (night session) was 9,136 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.38%. Malaysian palm oil's closing price was 3,950 ringgit/ton with an increase of 0.41%, and CBOT soybean oil's closing price was 46.72 cents/pound with a decline of 0.19% [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 3,248 to 656,196 lots, and open interest decreased by 35,546 to 432,781 lots. Soybean oil's trading volume increased by 3,247 to 356,149 lots, and open interest decreased by 20,106 to 579,312 lots. Rapeseed oil's trading volume increased by 60,229 to 603,657 lots, and open interest increased by 7,796 to 302,979 lots [1]. - Spot Prices: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 7,980 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,170 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 975 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton [1]. - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 470 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 292 yuan/ton [1]. - Price Spreads: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 971 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 442 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread of palm oil was 44 yuan/ton, soybean oil was 42 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil was 142 yuan/ton [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in June will be 12.55 million tons, lower than 13.83 million tons in the same period last year and 14.2 million tons in May. It maintains the outlook of exporting 110 million tons of soybeans in 2025, which would set a new record [2][3]. - A commodity research institution says that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 48.8 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 43.8 - 53.8 million tons. The weather is favorable for crop recovery, and the dry season this year may be shorter than usual [3]. - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May 2025 is expected to be 2.01 million tons, up 7.74% from April; production is expected to be 1.74 million tons, up 3% from April; and exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, up 17.9% from April [3]. c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].