格林大华期货国债早盘提示-20250605

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for the macro and financial sector's treasury bond varieties, the rating is "oscillation" [1] Core View - Treasury bond futures continued a narrow - range horizontal fluctuation pattern on Wednesday, and may continue to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended that trading - type investors conduct band operations [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board. The morning session saw an oscillatory decline, and in the afternoon, there was first a horizontal movement followed by a late - session rally. The daily fluctuation range was small. By the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.10%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.09%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.04% [1] Important Information - Open market: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 214.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 215.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 60 million yuan [1] - Funding market: On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market remained unchanged from the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.41%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.55%, also the same as the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year treasury bond fell 2.11 basis points to 1.46%, the 5 - year fell 1.47 basis points to 1.57%, the 10 - year fell 0.60 basis points to 1.67%, and the 30 - year fell 0.40 basis points to 1.89% [1] - On June 4th, it was announced that the US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000, with an expected increase of 110,000 and a previous increase of 62,000. The US recruitment rate in May reached its lowest level since March 2023 [1] - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI index in May dropped to 49.9, with an estimated value of 52.0 and a previous value of 51.6 [1] Market Logic - China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in May was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the second consecutive month, with a previous value of 49.0%. The production index in May was 50.7%, returning to the expansion range; the new orders index in May was 49.8%, slightly below the boom - bust line. The PMI new export orders index in May was 47.5%, compared to a previous value of 44.7%. After the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks in May, it is helpful for the recovery of export orders to the US. The PMI purchase price index of major raw materials and the ex - factory price index in May were 46.9% and 44.7% respectively, both 0.1 percentage points lower than in April, indicating continued pressure on industrial product prices. The finished goods inventory index in May was 46.5%, compared to a previous value of 47.3%, and the finished goods inventory index continued to contract, indicating that manufacturing enterprises are cautious about future demand expectations [1] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are recommended to conduct band operations [3]