化工日报：聚酯减产下市场情绪偏弱-20250605

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Short-term cautious bullish [2] - Inter-period: None [2] - Inter-variety: None [2] 2. Core View - The market sentiment is weak under polyester production cuts. The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,292 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,415 yuan/ton (down 63 yuan/ton or 1.41% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China was 128 yuan/ton (down 19 yuan/ton). The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$29/ton (down $4/ton), and that of coal-based syngas EG was 149 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). The inventory in the main ports of East China decreased significantly. The supply recovery in June is limited, and the demand load has declined but remains high. Before early June, the arrival of foreign ships is scarce, and the ethylene glycol ports are expected to continue destocking. Attention should be paid to the implementation of polyester production cuts and macro news changes [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,292 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China market was 4,415 yuan/ton. The spot basis in East China was 128 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$29/ton, and that of coal-based syngas EG was 149 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread - The report mentions the international spread of ethylene glycol: US FOB - China CFR [18]. Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - The report analyzes the sales and operating rates of downstream products such as filaments, staple fibers, and polyester [19][21][23]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 62.1 tons (down 6.6 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 57.7 tons (down 3.5 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 6.2 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 10.8 tons [1].