甲醇日报：港口累库持续兑现-20250605

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The port continued to accumulate inventory this week due to limited overseas plant maintenance and increased arrival pressure. The inventory accumulation rate in the future needs attention. In the inland area, the coal - based methanol production remains at a high level, and the inventory of inland factories continued to rise this week. The low operation rate of MTBE in traditional downstream industries has dragged down the inland demand. Although the methanol production profit has declined, it is still higher than the same period last year [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol basis in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01 futures contracts) [7][9][21]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][28][30]. 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated ones) [33][35]. 4. Regional Price Differences It shows various regional price differences, like the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and Lunan, etc. [2][37][46]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits The report includes the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [43][53]. Market Data - Inland Market: The price of Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 410 yuan/ton (unchanged). The production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 580 yuan/ton (+13). The prices of methanol in different inland regions have increased to varying degrees. The inventory of inland factories and the volume of pending orders have both increased. For example, the inventory of inland factories is 370,490 tons (+15,540), and the pending orders of inland factories are 262,180 tons (+12,288) [1]. - Port Market: The price of methanol in Taicang is 2302 yuan/ton (+27), and the port inventory has increased significantly. The total port inventory is 581,200 tons (+58,240). The downstream MTO operation rate is 85.19% (+1.37%). There are also changes in regional price differences [2]. Strategy The recommended strategy is to cautiously short - sell for hedging [4].