Guoxin Securities·2025-06-05 02:40Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the textile and apparel industry [1] Core Insights - The report outlines the timeline of Trump's tariff policy, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their impact on international brands [2] - International brands have expressed concerns about the impact of tariffs on profits, with varying exposure levels to the U.S. market and sourcing strategies [2][12] - The report anticipates industry consolidation and the potential for suppliers with lower U.S. exposure and higher profit margins to gain market share [2][35] Summary by Sections 1. Key Timeline of Trump's Tariff Policy - On April 10, the Trump administration announced a 90-day tariff delay for 75 countries, set to expire on July 8 [2] - A court ruling on May 28 deemed Trump's tariff policy invalid, leading to further appeals and ongoing uncertainty [2][11] 2. International Brands' Responses to Tariff Events - Brands like Uniqlo, Adidas, and PUMA have varying U.S. market exposure, with Uniqlo at 7% and Adidas and PUMA at 20% [12][13] - Most brands source less than 10% of their products from China, with a significant portion coming from Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam [12] - Short-term measures include pre-shipping goods to the U.S. and long-term strategies involve price adjustments and supply chain diversification [12][19] 3. Textile Enterprises' Capacity Distribution and Tariff Risk Exposure - Companies like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group have low U.S. revenue exposure, while those with significant Southeast Asian production face higher U.S. revenue percentages [2][32] - The report lists net profit margins for various companies, with Shenzhou International leading at 20.9% [2][32] - Companies with U.S. revenue below 20% are less sensitive to tariff impacts, while those with higher margins can maintain profitability even under pressure [32] 4. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include Shenzhou International for its low U.S. exposure and high net margin, and Huayi Group for its strong market position and demand [35] - Other companies to watch include Weixing Co., Taihua New Materials, and Kairun Co., which are expected to benefit from market share gains [35]