Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the market trends of various futures are classified into trend short, short - biased volatile, volatile, long - biased volatile, and trend long. For example, polysilicon is in a trend short, while CSI 1000 Index Futures are volatile [3]. - Based on quantitative indicators, futures are classified as short - biased, volatile, and long - biased. For example, Shanghai Silver is short - biased, while Corn Starch is long - biased [7]. - In the macro - financial sector, for stock index futures, it is advisable to consider buying on dips and focus on the repair of the discount. For treasury bond futures, a volatile strategy is recommended [13][14]. - In the black sector, the short - term rebound of black futures is not advisable to chase short, and it is recommended to go short on rallies later [17][18]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, aluminum and alumina are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to operate within a range. For lithium carbonate, an oscillatory approach is recommended, and attention should be paid to the possibility of upstream production cuts [25][28]. - In the agricultural products sector, for cotton, the price is under pressure to rebound. For sugar, the international market is expected to have oversupply pressure, and the domestic market's future supply depends on imports. For eggs, it is recommended to short on rallies for the 07 - 09 contracts. For apples, a light - position positive spread strategy is recommended. For dates, it is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately. For live pigs, it is recommended to go short on rallies for near - month contracts and focus on the 7 - 9/3 - 5 reverse spread strategy [32][34][36][38][39][40]. - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices, and plastic may be short - term strong. Methanol is expected to rebound in the short term but with limited upside. For asphalt, it is expected to rebound following oil prices. For the polyester industry chain, it is advisable to go short on rallies or consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread for PTA. For pulp, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and for urea, short - term short operations are advisable for short positions [43][45][46][47][48][49][50]. Summary by Directory Macro News - The finance ministers and central bank governors of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states held a meeting in Beijing, discussing issues such as deepening regional financial cooperation and establishing a financial think - tank network [10]. - US economic data in May was weak. The ADP employment increase was lower than expected, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI contracted for the first time in nearly a year. Trump called for the Fed to cut interest rates [10]. - FTSE Russell announced the quarterly review changes of the FTSE China Index series, with Jiangsu Bank being included in the FTSE China A50 Index and Great Wall Motor being removed [10]. - Trump's tariff policy is expected to cut the deficit by $2.8 trillion in 10 years but will lead to economic contraction and inflation [11]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed that the US economic activity declined slightly, and businesses faced cost - pushing pressure from tariffs [11]. - The US and Russian presidents had a phone call to discuss the Russia - Ukraine conflict and other issues [11]. Macro - Financial Stock Index Futures - The market liquidity expectation is high, and the market presents a general upward trend. The short - term disturbance may exist, but the stock index trend is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider buying on dips and focus on the repair of the discount [13]. Treasury Bond Futures - After the cross - month, the capital market is loose, and the bond market sentiment is warm. The short - term bond is relatively expensive compared to the capital valuation, which restricts the long - side strength. A volatile strategy is recommended [14]. Container Shipping on the European Line - The previous trading momentum has been released, and the focus is now on the implementation of the freight rate increase on the European line. The 08 contract may be more elastic in the peak - season contracts but is currently in a high position and lacks new positive drivers. In the long - term, factors such as the re - balance of shipping capacity between routes and the peak - season demand need to be considered [15]. Black Steel and Iron Ore - Affected by the sharp rise in coking coal, the steel price rebounds after a significant decline. In the future, the downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the supply is expected to remain stable. It is not advisable to chase short in the short - term, and it is recommended to go short on rallies later [17][18]. Coking Coal and Coke - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have not changed substantially, and the medium - term trend is still weak. The short - term is affected by news and is expected to maintain a volatile rebound [18]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are relatively strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips. For manganese silicon, it is recommended to stop losses for short positions on dips [20]. Soda Ash and Glass - The short - term supply pressure of soda ash increases, and the spot price weakens. The production of float glass is stable with a slight increase, and the demand is not significantly improved. The prices of both are expected to be weak, and the short - term rebound space is limited [22]. Non - Ferrous and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum has low inventory and strong demand resilience but faces pressure in some terminal sectors. Alumina's supply is recovering, and both are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to operate within a range [25]. Lithium Carbonate - The impact of tariffs on lithium carbonate is not obvious. The short - term price is mainly affected by its own supply - demand changes. The possibility of further decline is reduced, and an oscillatory approach is recommended [28]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, a short - biased view is maintained before the effective reduction of supply during the wet season. For polysilicon, the over - supply contradiction is expected to deepen in June, and it is recommended to hold short positions or sell call options [29]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The cotton price is under pressure to rebound due to factors such as insufficient production motivation and inventory digestion. The future price is affected by macro - situation and supply - demand changes, and it is expected to be in a low - level oscillatory state [32][33]. Sugar - The international sugar market is expected to have oversupply pressure, and the domestic market's future supply depends on imports. The price is expected to be weak [34][35]. Eggs - In June, the supply and demand of eggs are expected to be relatively loose, and the price pressure is large. However, the downside support is increasing, and it is recommended to short on rallies for the 07 - 09 contracts [36]. Apples - A light - position positive spread strategy is recommended. The current inventory is low, and the price is expected to be stable. Attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation in the producing areas [38]. Dates - It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be in a range - bound state [39]. Live Pigs - It is recommended to go short on rallies for near - month contracts and focus on the 7 - 9/3 - 5 reverse spread strategy. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally [40][41]. Energy and Chemical Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil will follow the crude oil price, and the price is stronger than that of crude oil. The Middle East power - generation peak season and shipping weakness interact, and there is no main contradiction currently [43]. Plastics - The market sentiment has improved, and it may be short - term strong. It is recommended to take a short - term long position and pay attention to the profit - taking. For the inter - month spread, a long position for the 9 - 1 spread is recommended [45]. Methanol - The short - term rebound is expected, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to go short after the rebound. The supply pressure is large, but the low price will stimulate downstream demand [46]. Asphalt - It is expected to rebound following oil prices, with the upper pressure in the range of $3450 - 3480. The price is weaker than that of oil [47]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is advisable to go short on rallies or consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread for PTA. The supply is increasing marginally, and the downstream demand is decreasing marginally, and the price is expected to decline [48]. Pulp - The short - term is expected to be oscillatory, and it is recommended to wait and see. Attention should be paid to the raw material and finished - product inventory rhythm [49]. Urea - There are positive factors on the policy side, but the futures price is closely related to the overall commodity futures market. Short - term short operations are advisable for short positions [50].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20250605
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-06-05 02:51