煤焦早报：矿端多有扰动，供需转向仍需时日，警惕冲高回落-20250605

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Coke - Oscillating weakly [1] - Coking coal - Oscillating weakly [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PMI data in May rebounded month - on - month compared to April. Although it is still below 50, it is stronger than the seasonality, mainly due to the repair of export orders after the China - US economic and trade agreement reached in Geneva. The focus will return to the domestic economic operation. The market is looking forward to supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand [4]. - For coking coal, supply is shrinking due to environmental inspections and safety production, and the biggest bearish pressure is loosening. However, the high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance still poses import pressure. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory accumulation pressure will gradually ease [4]. - For coke, cost and downstream demand are the decisive factors for its future trend. With the continuous decline of coking coal prices, coke enterprises still have a small profit and supply remains flat. Iron - water production has been decreasing for three consecutive weeks, and demand has peaked. If the cost side does not stabilize, it is expected that coke spot prices may see two more rounds of price cuts in June [4]. - Currently, the price has basically reached the cost line of most coal mines, and the room for further decline is limited. Short - term advice is to continue to hold a small position of J09 long orders and add positions after confirming the bottom [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply - The supply of coking coal is affected by environmental inspections and safety production and has begun to shrink. Domestic coking coal mine operating rates have declined from their high levels. 523 mines have an operating rate of 85.49% (-0.81), and 110 coal washing plants have an operating rate of 61.55% (-0.81) [1]. Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. 523 mines have a clean coal inventory of 473.03 million tons (+25.5), coal washing plants have a clean coal inventory of 222.07 million tons (+7.33), 247 steel mills have an inventory of 786.79 million tons (-11.96), 230 coke enterprises have an inventory of 716.66 million tons (-21.3), and port inventory is 303.09 million tons (+1.53) [2]. Price - Mongolian 5 coking coal is reported at 918 yuan/ton (-0), and the active contract is reported at 768 yuan/ton (+49). The basis is 145 yuan/ton (-74), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -18 yuan/ton (-1.5) [1]. Coke Supply - Coke supply remains flat. The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 75.08% (-0.1) [1][3]. Demand - Demand has peaked and declined. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.69% (-0.63), and the daily average iron - water output is 241.91 million tons (-1.69) [3]. Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. 230 coke enterprises have an inventory of 78.33 million tons (+5.23), 247 steel mills have an inventory of 654.93 million tons (-5.66), and port inventory is 217.18 million tons (-5.91) [3]. Price - The quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1340 yuan/ton (-0), and some steel mills have initiated the third - round price cut. The active contract is reported at 1367.5 yuan/ton (+68.5). The basis is 73.36 yuan/ton (-68.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -8.5 yuan/ton (+15) [3]. Strategy Recommendations - For coking coal, if the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory accumulation pressure will gradually ease. - For coke, if the cost side does not stabilize, it is expected that coke spot prices may see two more rounds of price cuts in June. Short - term advice is to continue to hold a small position of J09 long orders and add positions after confirming the bottom [4][5].