新能源及有色金属日报：市场成交有所走弱，铜价高位震荡-20250605

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Short put @ 76,000 yuan/ton [6] Core Viewpoints - The current copper concentrate processing fee remains low, and negotiations between domestic smelters and overseas mines are ongoing. With an accident at the Kamoa Copper Mine this month, it's unlikely that the processing fee will rise significantly immediately. On the demand side, although current data is relatively favorable, there are concerns about whether demand can be maintained in the second half of the year. Overall, given the relatively stable outlook for the power sector, the probability of a significant weakening in demand is low. Therefore, it's recommended to mainly adopt a strategy of buying on dips for copper, with a buying range of 76,000 - 76,500 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On June 4, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 77,910 yuan/ton and closed at 78,200 yuan/ton, up 0.71% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 78,050 yuan/ton and closed at 78,140 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - Brand spreads continued to widen. Premium copper like Jinchuan and Guixi was in short supply, with morning premiums of 200 - 250 yuan/ton. Xiangguang, Lufang, JCC, and Polish large - plate copper had premiums of 180 - 200 yuan/ton and were hard to find. Imported and domestic medium - grade copper initially had premiums of 70 - 100 yuan/ton, but as market transactions weakened, the premium dropped to 30 - 50 yuan/ton. With the narrowing of the monthly spread, premiums are expected to decline further [2]. Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: In May, the ADP employment number increased by 37,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The US May ISM non - manufacturing index dropped to 49.9, contracting for the first time in nearly a year. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates and advocated canceling the debt ceiling. His tax bill will increase the US deficit by $2.4 trillion in 10 years [3]. - Mine End: After the suspension of underground mining at the Kakula Mine on May 20, 2025, the company plans to restart the western area's underground mining in late June, depending on the progress of pumping. An evaluation result and restart plan for the western and eastern areas will be announced next week [3]. - Smelting and Imports: The spot trading volume of electrolytic copper was 25,800 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons (8.54% month - on - month) from the previous trading day. Transactions were mainly for low - priced goods [4]. - Consumption: In 2025, the planned investment in the domestic power grid is 650 billion yuan, with 140.8 billion yuan completed in the first four months, a 14.6% year - on - year increase. The real estate industry is in a slump, with investment, new construction, and completion areas decreasing. The automotive industry is divided, with traditional vehicle production down 4.6% and new energy vehicle production up 48%. The home appliance industry had good performance in 2024 but has high export dependence. The electronics field may be a new highlight, with AI driving potential growth in integrated circuit demand. Overall, annual copper terminal demand need not be overly pessimistic [4]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 4,600 tons to 141,350 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 529 tons to 31,933 tons. On June 3, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 153,000 tons, a change of 14,300 tons from the previous week [5]. Strategy - For copper, it's recommended to be cautiously bullish, with a buying range of 76,000 - 76,500 yuan/ton. Arbitrage is on hold, and the option strategy is short put @ 76,000 yuan/ton [6]