原油日报：沙特下调对亚洲出口官价贴水-20250605

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate and build a bottom; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - OPEC's actual production increase in May - July may be only 600,000 barrels per day, and part of the production is for domestic direct - burn power generation. So, OPEC's crude oil export growth will not increase significantly [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Crude Oil Futures Prices: The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 56 cents to $62.85 per barrel, a decline of 0.88%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery fell 77 cents to $64.86 per barrel, a decline of 1.17%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.07% at 463 yuan per barrel [1] - Emirates Fuel Inventory: As of the week ending June 2, the refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE decreased by 13% to a five - month low. Medium - distillate inventory dropped 35% to a record low of 652,000 barrels; heavy - distillate inventory fell 25% to 7.238 million barrels. Light - distillate inventory increased 5.9% to 7.726 million barrels [1] - US EIA Inventory: For the week ending May 30, US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 4.304 million barrels, EIA gasoline inventory increased by 5.219 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 576,000 barrels. US crude oil exports decreased by 394,000 barrels per day to 3.907 million barrels per day, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 509,000 barrels to 401.8 million barrels [1] - Russian Oil and Gas Revenue: In May, Russia's oil and gas revenue decreased by 35% year - on - year to 512.7 billion rubles ($6.55 billion), and also decreased by 53% compared with April [1] - Saudi's Production Increase Plan: Saudi Arabia hopes that OPEC + will continue to accelerate oil production increases in the next few months, aiming to increase production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and possibly September [1] - Canada's Oil Production: On June 4, Canada's Natural Resources Company restarted the Jackfish 1 oil sands project. About 344,000 barrels per day of oil sands production capacity (7% of the national output) was shut down earlier due to wildfires [1] Investment Logic - OPEC's actual production increase from May to July may be only 600,000 barrels per day, and the increase in crude oil exports will not be significant [2] Risks - Downside Risks: The conclusion of the Iran nuclear deal and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside Risks: Tighter supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [3]