新能源及有色金属日报：铝价受成本因素扰动表现强势-20250605

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum (unilateral): Cautiously bullish [4] - Alumina (unilateral): Neutral [4] - Aluminum (arbitrage): Long the near and short the far in SHFE aluminum [5] Core View - The price of aluminum is strongly affected by cost factors and shows a strong performance. The downstream acceptance of aluminum is poor, and the consumer sustainability may change in June. For alumina, the top of the spot price may have appeared, and the price is still under great pressure in the long - term due to the expectation of supply surplus [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price and Inventory - Aluminum spot: On June 4, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,280 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of Yangtze River A00 aluminum decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 90 yuan/ton. The Zhongyuan A00 aluminum price was 20,230 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,130 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [1] - Aluminum futures: On June 4, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 19,900 yuan/ton, closed at 20,075 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 160,576 lots, a decrease of 22,947 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 189,969 lots, a decrease of 1,175 lots [1] - Inventory: As of June 3, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 519,000 tons. As of June 4, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 367,875 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] Alumina Price and Inventory - Alumina spot: On June 4, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,260 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2] - Alumina futures: On June 4, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,995 yuan/ton, closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton or 2.17% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 610,813 lots, an increase of 187,670 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 299,898 lots, a decrease of 11,326 lots [2] Market Analysis - Electrolytic aluminum: Frequent coal mine accidents in Shanxi have a wide - ranging impact on the cost side, and the aluminum price has risen. The downstream acceptance is poor, and the spot premium has declined. There are no negative factors on the supply side at home and abroad. The consumer sustainability may change in June. The industry profit is rich, and it is difficult for the aluminum price to break through upward without unexpected positive stimuli [3] - Alumina: The trading rhythm of the spot market has slowed down, and the top of the spot price may have appeared. The supply is increasing, and the social inventory reduction has slowed down. The current futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and the price is still under pressure in the long - term [3]