FICC日报：马士基下半月报价相对较高，7月份仍存涨价预期-20250605

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The freight rates of the US route in June increased significantly due to the mismatch between supply and demand. The demand on the China-US route has rapidly increased, and the freight rates have soared under the background of the mismatch between supply and demand. The freight rates of the European route in June have a downward trend, and the Maersk's second-half-of-June quotation is relatively high, with a price increase expected in July. The 06 contract will gradually return to the "real" end trading as the delivery deadline approaches, and the 08 contract has a strong game between expectation and reality. It is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations. The main strategy is that the main contract fluctuates, and the arbitrage strategies are to go long on 08 and short on 10, and go long on 06 and short on 10 [3][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price - As of June 4, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 91,264 lots, and the single-day trading volume was 113,681 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1399.80, 1239.20, 1970.30, 2199.10, 1383.00, and 1570.10 respectively [6]. 3.2 Spot Price - On May 30, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1587.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 5172.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 6243.00 US dollars/FEU. On June 2, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1252.82 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1718.11 points [6]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 30, 2025, a total of 34 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total of 513,200 TEU; 4 ships of over 17,000 + TEU were delivered, with a total of 94,864 TEU. From January to May, a total of 115 container ships were delivered, with a total of 903,900 TEU [6]. 3.4 Supply Chain - There was an attack on Israel's Ben - Gurion International Airport by the Houthi armed forces, which may have an impact on the supply chain [3]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The demand on the China - US route has increased rapidly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, and the demand on the European route has a downward trend. The monthly average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - European route in June was about 268,200 TEU, and the weekly capacity in weeks 23/24/25/26 was 273,200/227,100/298,400/273,700 TEU, an increase of more than 20% compared with the same period last year [3][4].