镍、不锈钢：近期预计延续震荡走势

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The nickel and stainless steel markets are expected to continue their volatile trends in the near term. The core contradictions include a slight intraday decline in Shanghai nickel, short - term support in Philippine nickel mines, a slight downward shift in the Indonesian domestic trade benchmark price, stable premiums in June, stable ferronickel prices, production cuts in some stainless - steel mills in China and Indonesia, and a downward trend in nickel salts in the new energy chain affected by nickel prices. Future focus is on spot trading and fundamental drivers [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Management Strategies - Shanghai Nickel Price Forecast: The predicted price range is 11,700 - 12,600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - Shanghai Nickel Management Strategies: - Inventory Management: When product sales prices fall and there is a risk of inventory value decline, strategies include short - selling Shanghai nickel futures (60% hedge ratio, strategy level 2), selling call options (50% hedge ratio, strategy level 2), and buying far - month Shanghai nickel contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs (strategy level 3) [2] - Procurement Management: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, strategies include selling put options and buying out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan (strategy levels 1 and 3 respectively) [2] Market Conditions and Influencing Factors - Core Contradictions: Intraday, Shanghai nickel had a slight correction. There was short - term support in Philippine nickel mines, a slight downward shift in the Indonesian domestic trade benchmark price, and stable premiums in June. Ferronickel prices were stable. Some stainless - steel mills in China and Indonesia announced production cuts, and the new energy chain's nickel salts declined due to nickel prices. Future focus is on spot trading and fundamental drivers [3] - Positive Factors: The Philippine government plans to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025, some stainless - steel mills announced production cuts, and there is support from stable costs of nickel ore and ferronickel [4] - Negative Factors: Stainless - steel inventories remain at a high level, stainless - steel has entered the traditional off - season, and multiple stainless - steel trading countries have launched anti - dumping investigations [4] Market Data - Nickel Disk Daily Data: The latest price of Shanghai Nickel Main Contract is 122,590 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shanghai Nickel Continuous 1 is 122,590 yuan/ton (up 1.11%), Shanghai Nickel Continuous 2 is 122,750 yuan/ton (up 1.05%), Shanghai Nickel Continuous 3 is 122,900 yuan/ton (up 1.05%), and LME Nickel 3M is 15,475 US dollars/ton (down 1.04%). Trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, while the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1.18%. The basis of the main contract increased by 86.2% [5] - Stainless - Steel Disk Daily Data: The latest price of Stainless - Steel Main Contract is 12,720 yuan/ton (unchanged), Stainless - Steel Continuous 1 is 12,720 yuan/ton (up 0.71%), Stainless - Steel Continuous 2 is 12,735 yuan/ton (up 0.63%), Stainless - Steel Continuous 3 is 12,740 yuan/ton (up 0.63%). Trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 4.09%, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 12.16% [6] - Nickel Industry Inventory: Domestic social nickel inventory is 41,553 tons (down 836 tons), LME nickel inventory is 201,624 tons (up 162 tons), stainless - steel social inventory is 967.5 tons (down 6.4 tons), and nickel pig iron inventory is 31,462 tons (up 1,907.5 tons) [7]