5月PMI数据点评：内、外需表现分化

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery but still in the contraction zone[1] - The new orders index for May is at 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the new export orders index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, highlighting external demand's contribution to manufacturing recovery[1][5] - The production index rose to 50.7%, a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone[1][5] Supply Chain and Inventory - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, while the finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating inventory adjustments in response to demand changes[1][5] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, suggesting stable delivery times despite the overall supply chain pressures[1][5] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months, with significant growth in computer and communication equipment exports, where the export orders index exceeded 10% growth[2][9] - The electrical machinery and specialized equipment sectors saw export order indices increase by over 10% in May, indicating strong external demand recovery[2][9] Risks and Outlook - There are concerns regarding the potential for increased recession risks in major overseas economies and heightened geopolitical uncertainties[3][17]