铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250605

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the cold US data and Trump's call for a rate cut have led to market speculation on rate - cut expectations. In the US, the May ISM services PMI fell below the boom - bust line, the ADP employment data was far below expectations, and the Fed's Beige Book showed a slight weakening of economic activity. Domestically, the A - share market rebounded with increased trading volume, and the bond market had a V - shaped rebound. The domestic economy is expected to continue a weak recovery in Q2, and domestic policies are waiting for the July meeting window [2][3]. - Different commodities have different price trends. Gold prices rebounded due to weak US data; copper prices are expected to continue strong oscillations; aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate; alumina prices are expected to oscillate favorably; zinc prices are in a stalemate; lead prices are in a stable consolidation; tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly; industrial silicon prices are expected to continue to explore the bottom; lithium carbonate prices are expected to be under pressure; nickel prices are expected to oscillate; oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly; steel prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate; and agricultural product prices such as soybean meal and palm oil are expected to oscillate [3][6][8][11][12][14][15][16][18][21][23][24][26][27][28]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The May ISM services PMI in the US was 49.9, falling below the boom - bust line. The ADP employment data in May was only 3.7 million, far lower than the expected 11 million. The Fed's Beige Book showed a slight decline in economic activity, and the dollar index fell to 98.7, with the 10Y US Treasury yield dropping to 4.36%. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff negotiations, tax - cut bills, and the non - farm payroll report on Friday [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market rebounded with the trading volume of the two markets rising to 1.16 trillion. The bond market had a V - shaped rebound, with the 10Y and 30Y yields at 1.67% and 1.89% respectively. The domestic economy is expected to continue a weak recovery in Q2, and domestic policies are waiting for the July meeting window [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose on Wednesday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.60% to $3397.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.06% to $34.66 per ounce. Weak US data and geopolitical and economic uncertainties have led investors to turn to gold as a safe - haven asset [3]. 3.3 Copper - Macro: The Fed's Beige Book showed a slight decline in US economic activity, and the ADP employment data was far lower than expected, with the dollar index weakening and boosting copper prices. - Industry: First Quantum will spend about $20 million per month to maintain its Cobre Panama copper mine. The mine has 121,000 tons of concentrates, but some have deteriorated. The president is interested in renegotiating the mine's operation. LME copper inventories fell to 141,000 tons. Copper prices are expected to continue strong oscillations [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - Macro: The weak US economic data led to a decline in the US dollar index and a rebound in metal prices. - Fundamentals: The proportion of molten aluminum may increase, and the supply of aluminum ingots may decline. However, the consumption off - season is approaching, and consumption is expected to decline. Aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate [8][9][10]. 3.5 Alumina - Guinea's mine disruptions due to force majeure have led to a technical vacation, which is beneficial for the rebound of alumina prices. The current supply - demand is relatively balanced, and the spot is slightly tight. Alumina prices are expected to oscillate favorably [11]. 3.6 Zinc - The spot premium of zinc remains high, but downstream demand is weak. The CZSPT released the import zinc concentrate procurement dollar processing fee guidance price for Q3 2025. A Canadian mine was temporarily closed due to wildfires. The supply is expected to recover strongly in June and July, but the current spot arrival is insufficient. Zinc prices are in a stalemate, with short - term sideways movement and medium - to - long - term downward pressure [12][13]. 3.7 Lead - The downstream demand for lead is weak after the holiday, and the supply pressure has increased marginally. The support at around 16,500 yuan for lead prices is effective, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. Lead prices are expected to maintain a consolidation trend [14]. 3.8 Tin - Downstream restocking has led to a significant decline in inventories, supporting the rebound of tin prices. However, the willingness of funds to chase the rise is insufficient, and the consumption side is weak. Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with attention paid to the pressure near the moving average [15]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The supply rebound of industrial silicon is limited, and the demand is weak. The social inventory has risen slightly, and the spot market is still in a downward trend. Industrial silicon prices are expected to continue to explore the bottom [16][17]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated strongly, while the spot price fell. The new production capacity launch is slowing down. Technically, there is no sign of active bullish pulling. The spot price is weak, and the fundamentals lack factors to boost prices. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rallies [18][19][20]. 3.11 Nickel - The weak US economic data may cause economic expectations to weaken. The supply of nickel ore may recover, and some Indonesian nickel - iron plants have cut production. However, stainless - steel mills have reduced production, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate [21][22]. 3.12 Crude Oil - The US - Iran peace talks have made new progress, and Saudi Arabia wants to increase production significantly, but there are differences within OPEC +. The short - term bearish sentiment is strong, and oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly [23]. 3.13 Steel (Screw and Coil) - The steel futures rebounded, but the real - estate market dragged down demand, and the seasonal demand for rebar weakened. The steel consumption decreased during the college entrance examination. Steel prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate [24][25]. 3.14 Iron Ore - The spot trading volume of iron ore increased, and the supply was relatively loose. However, steel mills' off - season shutdowns and maintenance increased, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [26]. 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is good, and the news of the easing of China - Canada trade relations has affected the rapeseed market. The domestic spot price is under pressure, and the soybean meal futures are expected to oscillate [27]. 3.16 Palm Oil - The sharp decline in rapeseed oil prices has dragged down the entire oil and fat sector. The expected increase in palm oil production and inventory has put pressure on prices. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate widely [28][29].