铝锭：关税政策提振铝价，关注高价下游反馈

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation [2] - The price of aluminum is expected to move within a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream开工 [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunguizhou region's short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have or will stop production, affecting a daily output of about 16,200 tons [1] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the contracted area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, hitting a new low recently. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - The new US tariff policy has raised the tariff on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, which will take effect at 00:01 on June 4, Eastern Time. The Midwest US duty - paid aluminum premium has soared to 58 cents per pound (about $1,280 per ton), a 54% increase from last Friday, reaching the highest level since 2013 [1][2] - In May 2025, China's bauxite production increased by 5.0% month - on - month and 19.1% year - on - year. Some mines are undergoing environmental inspections, which may affect production [2] - As of May 30, the average profit of the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan per ton. In June, alumina production capacity is expected to gradually resume and new production capacity will be further released [2] - The PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry in May was 49.8%, close to the boom - bust line but still in the contraction range. It decreased by 1.8 percentage points month - on - month and increased by 8.7% year - on - year, mainly due to the off - season and weak terminal demand [2] - As of June 3, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 519,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous week [2] - Uncertainty at the mine end may increase price fluctuations. The inventory faces accumulation pressure in the off - season, and the short - term aluminum price is expected to adjust in a range [3]