华宝期货铁矿石：焦煤带动板块反弹，不建议追多操作

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The rebound of the iron ore sector was driven by coking coal, but the rebound height is limited. The demand for iron ore has declined from its peak but is expected to remain at a relatively high level, which will support the price. It is predicted that the short - term price will remain range - bound, and chasing long positions is not recommended. Although the coking coal price has stabilized and rebounded and market sentiment has improved, the fundamental basis for the coking coal rebound is weak and the sustainability of the sector's strength is questionable [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The current shipment of foreign mines has increased month - on - month, with significant increases in shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions, but the volume of Australian shipments to China has decreased month - on - month. In June, which is the peak season for foreign ore shipments, mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady upward trend in shipments, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has declined from its peak but is still in a high - level area. The molten iron output has decreased for three consecutive weeks, with the current figure at 241.91 (a month - on - month decrease of 1.69). The short - term demand has peaked, but the current profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high. It is expected that the molten iron output will show an overall downward trend from a high level, but the downward slope will be gentle. High demand is the core factor supporting the price [4]. Inventory - The current domestic demand level is still relatively high. It is expected that the port inventory level will remain relatively stable or tend to decline in the first half of June. However, overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the phased destocking at a high inventory level is difficult to provide upward momentum [4].