Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy on dips, or go long on IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" opportunistically [3]. - The short - term bond market will fluctuate, and in the context of weak domestic demand recovery and expected continued loose funds, the interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6]. - Silver has upward momentum under the Fed's loose monetary policy, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on silver on dips [8]. - The prices of most non - ferrous metals face different degrees of upward resistance or downward pressure, and corresponding trading strategies are given according to different metal varieties [10][11][12]. - The steel market is in the traditional off - season, and the terminal demand is weakening. The tariff policy is changeable, and the medium - and long - term demand still faces great pressure [22]. - The prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron are in a downward trend, and it is not recommended to bottom - fish prematurely due to "low valuation" [26][27]. - The prices of industrial silicon may continue to decline due to over - supply and insufficient demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [32]. - For rubber, a short - long trading strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [37]. - For crude oil, short - term observation is recommended [38]. - For methanol, it is recommended to go short on rallies; for urea, it is recommended to wait and see; for PVC, the medium - term fundamentals are still weak; for ethylene glycol, there is a risk of valuation correction; for PTA, it will continue to destock and oscillate at the current valuation level; for p - xylene, it will oscillate at the current valuation level; for polyethylene, the price will oscillate; for polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in June [39][40][41]. - For livestock and poultry products, for live pigs, it is recommended to sell on rallies; for eggs, it is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts and wait for the accumulation of contradictions for far - month contracts [51][52]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, it is recommended to pay attention to the external market's weather stimulus at the lower end of the cost range of the 09 contract [54]. - For oils and fats, it is expected to oscillate [56]. - For sugar, the price may weaken in the future; for cotton, it is expected to continue the oscillating trend in the short term [58][59]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - Market Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.42%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.11%, and other major indexes also showed varying degrees of increase. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.153 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.6 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - Macro News: There are expectations of RRR cuts and restarting bond purchases, and there are calls for the Fed to cut interest rates in the US. The US ADP employment data in May was far lower than expected [2]. - Funding Situation: The margin trading balance increased by 3.469 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate decreased by 0.20bp. The credit spread and Sino - US interest rate spread both decreased [2]. - Valuation Indicators: The price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, and dividend yields of major indexes are provided, as well as the basis ratios of stock index futures [3]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [3][4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Quotes: The main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose on Wednesday [5]. - News: South Korea plans to formulate a second supplementary budget, and the Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates if inflation meets expectations [5]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 214.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 600 million yuan [6]. - Strategy: The short - term bond market will fluctuate, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips in the long - term [6]. Precious Metals - Market Quotes: Shanghai gold rose 0.45%, and Shanghai silver and COMEX gold and silver also showed different degrees of increase [7]. - Market Outlook: The Fed is approaching the time to signal further interest rate cuts. The US economic data has weakened comprehensively, and the silver - gold ratio has declined. Silver has upward momentum [7][8]. - Strategy: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on silver on dips, with reference price ranges provided for Shanghai gold and silver [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market Quotes: LME copper rose 0.11%, and SHFE copper also showed a slight increase. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic warehouse receipt increased slightly [10]. - Price Outlook: The copper price faces upward resistance due to factors such as marginal improvement in supply tension and weakening consumption resilience [10]. Aluminum - Market Quotes: LME aluminum rose 0.67%, and SHFE aluminum also increased. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods showed different trends [11]. - Price Outlook: The short - term aluminum price may oscillate weakly due to factors such as tariff policies and inventory changes [11]. Zinc - Market Quotes: The Shanghai zinc index rose 1.21%. The zinc concentrate processing fee increased, and the refined zinc output is expected to increase [12]. - Price Outlook: The zinc price still has a large downward risk due to over - supply and weak terminal consumption [12]. Lead - Market Quotes: The Shanghai lead index rose 0.59%. The downstream demand for lead is weak, and the supply of primary lead is increasing while the supply of recycled lead is decreasing [13]. - Price Outlook: If the price of recycled lead raw materials drops further, it may deepen the downward space of the lead price [13]. Nickel - Market Quotes: The nickel price oscillated. The production of refined nickel is at a historical high, and the demand from the stainless - steel market is weak [14]. - Price Outlook: The short - term fundamentals of nickel have slightly improved, but it is still bearish in the long - term, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [14]. Tin - Market Quotes: The tin price rebounded significantly due to concerns about supply. The downstream demand has not increased significantly [15]. - Price Outlook: The rebound space of the tin price is limited, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [15]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Quotes: The spot index of carbonate lithium was flat, and the futures price rose. The main contract reduced its position, and the short - term fundamentals have not changed substantially [16][17]. - Price Outlook: The lithium price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the market atmosphere, position changes, and supply disturbances [17]. Alumina - Market Quotes: The alumina index rose 2.11%. The spot price remained unchanged, and the futures inventory decreased [18]. - Price Outlook: The alumina price is expected to be anchored by cost, and it is recommended to go short on rallies lightly [18]. Stainless Steel - Market Quotes: The stainless - steel futures price rose, and the spot price remained stable. The raw material prices showed different trends, and the inventory decreased [19]. - Price Outlook: The stainless - steel market is in a situation of oversupply, and the traders have difficulty in supporting the price [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Quotes: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose, and the spot prices also increased. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the supply decreased; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coil both increased, and the inventory continued to decrease [21][22]. - Price Outlook: The steel market is in the off - season, and the terminal demand is weakening. The tariff policy is changeable, and the medium - and long - term demand still faces great pressure [22]. Iron Ore - Market Quotes: The iron - ore futures price rose. The iron - ore shipment increased, the iron - water output decreased, and the port inventory continued to decrease [23]. - Price Outlook: The iron - ore price may oscillate as the iron - water output declines and the downstream demand weakens [23]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot price of glass in Shahe remained unchanged, and the production enterprise's inventory decreased slightly. The short - term spot sales were good, but the medium - term futures price is expected to be weak [24]. - Soda Ash: The spot price of soda ash was slightly adjusted. The supply decreased due to summer maintenance, and the inventory increased. The demand is expected to decline, and the medium - term fundamentals are still weak [25]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - Market Quotes: The prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose slightly, but they are still in a downward trend [26][27]. - Price Outlook: The prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron are affected by factors such as over - supply, weak demand, and cost reduction, and it is not recommended to bottom - fish prematurely [26][27]. Industrial Silicon - Market Quotes: The industrial - silicon futures price rose, but it is still in a downward trend. The supply is over - abundant, and the demand is insufficient [32][33]. - Price Outlook: The price of industrial silicon may continue to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [32]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market Quotes: The prices of NR and RU were boosted by the rebound of coking coal and coke. The operating rates of tire enterprises showed different trends, and the social inventory of natural rubber decreased [36]. - Price Outlook: A short - long trading strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [37]. Crude Oil - Market Quotes: The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures fell, while the INE crude oil futures price rose. The US EIA data showed different trends in inventory changes [38]. - Price Outlook: Short - term observation is recommended [38]. Methanol - Market Quotes: The methanol futures price rose, and the spot price also increased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [39]. - Price Outlook: It is recommended to go short on rallies, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the PP - 3MA spread of the 09 contract [39]. Urea - Market Quotes: The urea futures price rose, and the spot price remained unchanged. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is mediocre [40]. - Price Outlook: It is recommended to wait and see [40]. PVC - Market Quotes: The PVC futures price rose, and the spot price increased slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [41]. - Price Outlook: The medium - term fundamentals are still weak, and the main logic is inventory reduction weakening [41]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Quotes: The ethylene - glycol futures price fell, and the spot price also decreased. The supply load increased slightly, and the downstream load decreased. The port inventory decreased [42]. - Price Outlook: There is a risk of valuation correction [42]. PTA - Market Quotes: The PTA futures price rose, and the spot price decreased. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is stable. The inventory decreased [44]. - Price Outlook: PTA will continue to destock and oscillate at the current valuation level [44]. p - Xylene - Market Quotes: The p - xylene futures price rose, and the spot price also increased. The supply load increased, and the demand decreased slightly. The inventory decreased [45]. - Price Outlook: It will oscillate at the current valuation level, and the destocking will slow down in June and accelerate in the third quarter [45]. Polyethylene - Market Quotes: The polyethylene futures price rose, and the spot price remained unchanged. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season [46]. - Price Outlook: The price will oscillate [46]. Polypropylene - Market Quotes: The polypropylene futures price rose, and the spot price remained unchanged. The supply will increase significantly in June, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally [47][48]. - Price Outlook: The price is expected to be bearish in June [47]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Quotes: The domestic pig price generally fell, the supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak [51]. - Price Outlook: The pig price may continue to decline, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [51]. Eggs - Market Quotes: The national egg price was generally stable, the supply was stable, and the demand was weak [52]. - Price Outlook: The spot price is under downward pressure. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts and wait for the accumulation of contradictions for far - month contracts [52]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Quotes: The US soybean price rose slightly, and the domestic soybean - meal spot price fell. The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the inventory is expected to increase [53]. - Price Outlook: The price of soybean meal is affected by both external cost support and domestic supply pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the external market's weather stimulus at the lower end of the cost range of the 09 contract [54]. Oils and Fats - Market Quotes: The palm - oil production in Malaysia increased in May, and the export also increased. The prices of domestic oils and fats showed different trends, and the spot basis oscillated slightly [55]. - Price Outlook: The oils and fats are expected to oscillate due to factors such as production recovery, policy uncertainty, and inventory levels [56]. Sugar - Market Quotes: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly, and the spot price fell slightly. The sales volume and inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan showed different trends [57]. - Price Outlook: The sugar price may weaken in the future due to factors such as international supply and domestic import [58]. Cotton - Market Quotes: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated weakly, and the spot price fell slightly. The US cotton planting and budding rates showed different trends [59]. - Price Outlook: The cotton price is expected to continue the oscillating trend in the short term due to factors such as supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiment [59].
五矿期货文字早评-20250605
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-06-05 03:37