光大期货金融期货日报-20250605

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic data in April declined to some extent compared with March but remained resilient under the background of the tariff war. The year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was 5.1%, which was significantly supported by the "trade-in" policy. The social credit demand in April was weak. The cumulative new RMB loans in April reached 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 in April was 8%. The joint statement issued by China and the United States laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations, exceeding market expectations. Recently, the three departments held a joint press conference. The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut policy to reduce the cost of the liability side of enterprises. The Financial Regulatory Administration emphasized that it would vigorously promote the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market and support, stabilize and activate the capital market through a quasi - flat fund. The CSRC said it would optimize the fee model of active equity funds. The internal policy drive is the main line for the stock index in 2025. In terms of financial reports, in the first quarter, the decline rate of the full - market revenue growth of A - share listed companies narrowed for three consecutive quarters, but was still lower than the policy interest rate. The net profit increased year - on - year by about 4%, but the ROE was still in the stage of bottoming out and stabilizing. These measures are conducive to helping enterprises repair their balance sheets and promoting the stable development of the real economy, leading to a stable increase in stock market valuations. The stock index is expected to fluctuate [1]. - On the day of the bond futures closing, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.10%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.09%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.04%. The capital market remained loose, with DR007 rising 1BP to 1.56%. In June, it is difficult for the bond market to have a trending market. After macro - level disturbances, the bond market will fluctuate following the capital market and economic fundamentals again. After the reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, the capital market is unlikely to fluctuate significantly in the short term, the expectation of incremental policies in the short term has cooled, and the economic resilience remains. The bond market shows a sideways shock pattern again after adjustment [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Stock Index Futures: The stock index is expected to fluctuate. The internal policy drive is the main line in 2025. The measures are conducive to the stable development of the real economy and the stable increase of stock market valuations [1]. - Bond Futures: The bond market is expected to fluctuate. In June, it is difficult to have a trending market. After adjustment, it shows a sideways shock pattern [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes | Variety | 2025 - 06 - 04 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH (Stock Index Futures) | 2,673.6 | 2,668.6 | 5.0 | 0.19% | | IF (Stock Index Futures) | 3,842.4 | 3,824.8 | 17.6 | 0.46% | | IC (Stock Index Futures) | 5,688.8 | 5,638.4 | 50.4 | 0.89% | | IM (Stock Index Futures) | 6,054.0 | 5,998.0 | 56.0 | 0.93% | | Shanghai Composite 50 (Stock Index) | 2,690.8 | 2,687.3 | 3.5 | 0.13% | | CSI 300 (Stock Index) | 3,868.7 | 3,852.0 | 16.7 | 0.43% | | CSI 500 (Stock Index) | 5,739.0 | 5,694.8 | 44.2 | 0.78% | | CSI 1000 (Stock Index) | 6,123.2 | 6,070.0 | 53.1 | 0.88% | | TS (Bond Futures) | 102.40 | 102.35 | 0.044 | 0.04% | | TF (Bond Futures) | 106.04 | 105.96 | 0.075 | 0.07% | | T (Bond Futures) | 108.77 | 108.69 | 0.08 | 0.07% | | TL (Bond Futures) | 119.57 | 119.45 | 0.12 | 0.10% | [3] 3.3 Market News - On June 4, local time, the results of the South Korean presidential election were announced. Lee Jae - myung of the Democratic Party was elected president with a vote - share of 49.42% (17.2875 million votes). His term officially began at 6:21 am on June 4, and his inauguration ceremony was held at the National Assembly at 11 am on the same day [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and the basis trends of IH, IF, IC, IM [6][7][10][11]. - Bond Futures: There are charts showing the trends of bond futures main contracts, bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][17]. - Exchange Rates: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [20][21][24][25].