Variety Views - On June 4, the three major A-share indexes closed up collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.42% to 3376.20 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.87% to 10144.58 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.11% to 2024.93 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.6 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index was strong on June 4, closing at 3868.741, a环比 increase of 16.73 [1] - On June 4, the weighted index of coke rebounded after an oversold, closing at 1368.0 yuan, a环比 increase of 73.2. The weighted index of coking coal stopped falling and fluctuated, closing at 770.4 yuan, a环比 increase of 51.5 [1][2] Factors Affecting Futures Prices Coke - The second round of price cuts in the spot market has been implemented. US President Trump announced an increase in steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% starting from June 4, causing market sentiment to fluctuate. The abundant supply of raw materials has weakened cost support, and iron water production has declined from its peak. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period is 39 yuan/ton [3] Coking Coal - The fundamentals show an abundant supply, with stable mine production. The inventory of clean coal has continued to increase this period [3] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by technical factors due to a large short - term decline, US sugar rebounded after hitting the bottom on Tuesday. Supported by factors such as a large short - term decline and the stabilization of US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract stabilized and rebounded on Wednesday. The night session of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated little, with a narrow - range oscillation and a slight increase. As of the week ending May 27, hedge funds and large speculators held 19,503 net long positions in raw sugar, a decrease of 8,928 from the previous week, hitting a two - and - a - half - month low. Long positions increased by 7,024 to 209,622, and short positions increased by 15,952 to 190,119 [3] Rubber - Affected by technical factors due to a large short - term decline and short - covering, Shanghai rubber oscillated and rebounded on Wednesday. The night session of Shanghai rubber fluctuated little, with a narrow - range oscillation and a slight decline. According to Longzhong Information, the arrival of overseas rubber supplies has continued to decrease recently, leading to a continuous decline in the total inventory of Qingdao spot. As of June 1, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 609,700 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.80% [4] Palm Oil - On June 4, palm oil rebounded weakly and returned to the range - bound pattern. The main contract P2509 closed with a negative K - line. The highest price on that day was 8210, the lowest price was 8102, and the closing price was 8130, a 0.81% increase from the previous trading day. A commodity research institution said that Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 19 million tons, the same as the previous forecast, with a forecast range of 18.5 - 19.5 million tons. Although the production in May remained resilient, there are signs that production has slowed down after a significant 21.5% month - on - month increase in April. It is expected that production will resume strong growth in the second half of 2025. Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May 2025 is expected to be 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% increase from April; production is expected to be 1.74 million tons, a 3% increase from April; and exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 17.9% increase from April [4][6] Soybean Meal - In the international market, on June 4, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher. Global soybean production is still promising, and the weather conditions in the US Midwest are generally good, boosting the crop yield outlook and restricting the increase in soybean prices. As of June 1, the sowing rate of soybeans in 2025 was 84%, higher than the five - year average of 80%. The National Association of Grain Exporters in Brazil estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in June are expected to be 12.55 million tons, lower than 13.83 million tons in the same period last year. In the domestic market, on June 4, soybean meal futures oscillated in a narrow range. The main contract M2509 closed at 2938 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase. Supported by the high - opening and high - pressing volume of oil mills, the inventory accumulation of soybean meal has accelerated slightly. As of the end of May, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills increased to 306,000 tons, highlighting the short - term increase in supply. Short - term attention should be paid to the arrival of soybeans [5] Live Pigs - On June 4, the futures price of live pigs oscillated weakly. The main contract 2509 closed at 13,490 yuan/ton, a 0.52% decrease. Currently, overall consumer demand is weak. With the significant increase in domestic temperatures and the adjustment of residents' diet structure, the sales of fresh pork are poor. At the beginning of the month, the slaughter of the breeding end has decreased slightly. The slaughter plan of large - scale pig enterprises is relatively small, and the willingness of small - scale pig farms to sell at low prices is insufficient, slightly reducing the market supply pressure. However, based on the previous calculation of sow inventory, the supply of standard pigs in June may increase month - on - month, and the market is generally in a pattern of abundant supply. Short - term attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter rhythm of live pigs [7] Shanghai Copper - After the release of the US ADP employment data in May, US President Trump said that Powell must cut interest rates. The US dollar was under pressure, which was positive for copper prices. At the same time, overseas copper mine supply is tight. Zijin's Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo has suspended operations, which may affect production. The first - round long - term TC quote for mines and smelters in the middle of the year is - 15 US dollars/ton, increasing the long - term production reduction pressure on smelters. Technically, Shanghai copper is in an upward trend with the momentum to continue rising. On the supply side, although the supply in Shanghai has decreased slightly today, there will still be inventory in the future, and imported supplies will arrive tomorrow. On the demand side, downstream consumption was light on the first day after the holiday, and the purchasing sentiment declined. As the price fell, the downstream's bargaining psychology was obvious. Overall, Shanghai copper may maintain an oscillating pattern under the interweaving of multiple and short factors. If it can effectively break through the previous high pressure level of 78,650 yuan/ton, it may open up further room for rebound; if not, it may face a callback risk under the pressure of increased supply and weak demand [8] Iron Ore - On June 4, the main contract 2509 of iron ore oscillated and rose, with a 1.37% increase, closing at 704.5 yuan. The overseas shipment volume and domestic arrival volume of iron ore in this period have both rebounded. Affected by the off - season of terminal demand and the decline in blast furnace profits, iron water production has decreased for three consecutive periods, and demand may further decline. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillating trend in the short term [8] Asphalt - On June 4, the main contract 2507 of asphalt oscillated and closed down, with a 0.45% decrease, closing at 3506 yuan. The planned asphalt production volume of domestic refineries in June is expected to increase year - on - year. The rainy weather in the south has suppressed demand. Under the pressure of supply and demand, the fundamentals lack driving force, and asphalt is expected to show an oscillating trend [9] Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,285 yuan/ton. According to the China Cotton Information Network on June 6, the lowest basis quotation of the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse in the National Cotton Trading Market was 410 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 85 lots compared with the previous trading day [9] Logs - On Wednesday, the 2507 contract of logs opened at 766, with a minimum of 752.5, a maximum of 768, and closed at 758.5, with a daily reduction of 892 lots. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price at 750 - 770 and the pressure at 790. Supported by the spot market, the futures price rebounded. As the market enters June, attention should be paid to information on delivery. On June 4, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. The inventory of logs at ports has increased slightly, and overall demand is still weak. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. The market has entered the off - season, and spot transactions are weak. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of spot prices, import data, downstream purchasing, and the willingness of traders to support prices [9][11] Steel - On June 4, rb2510 closed at 2974 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3097 yuan/ton. Coke and coking coal led the black series to rise, and the repair of steel mill profits drove the expectation of replenishment. Although the data on May 29 showed that the average daily iron water production of 247 steel mills decreased month - on - month, the profitability of steel mills continued to improve. After the announcement of the increase in steel tariffs, the market's concerns have been partially released, and the prices of terminal finished products have stabilized and rebounded, further strengthening the rigid procurement demand of steel mills for coke and feeding back to the finished product end, leading to an increase [11] Alumina - On June 4, ao2509 closed at 3063 yuan/ton. The long - term production reduction capacity remains, and the incremental output from partial resumption of production and new production capacity is currently mainly used to supplement long - term contracts or directly flow to metallurgical or non - metallurgical terminals. It is difficult to form a quantitative accumulation in the spot circulation supply end, and the spot market price remains stable at a high level. Currently, in terms of trading, both supply and demand sides are in a relatively balanced state of price negotiation. In the future, attention should be paid to the operating behavior of traders based，on their predictions. Fundamentally, the supply is in a process of steady increase, and attention should be paid to potential sudden policies or events [12] Shanghai Aluminium - On June 4, al2507 closed at 20,075 yuan/ton. Affected by the US upgrade of steel and aluminum tariffs and the slight accumulation of aluminum ingot inventory after the holiday, the aluminum price declined. However, the relatively small arrival of aluminum ingots and the partial offset of the off - season demand by short - term terminal export rush will make the inventory pressure of aluminum ingots not obvious, so the low inventory will still support the price [12] Lithium Carbonate - The index price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,417 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton from the previous working day; battery - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 59,300 - 61,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 60,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 58,150 - 59,150 yuan/ton, with an average price of 58,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The center of the spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continues to move down. From the demand side, the increase in production scheduling in June is extremely limited, and downstream material factories generally pick up goods in the form of long - term contracts and customer - supplied materials. On the upstream supply side, the slight rebound in the previous futures price has provided an opportunity for some non - integrated lithium salt factories to hedge and resume production, and there is an expectation of an increase in market supply. At the same time, with the continuous decline in lithium ore prices, the cost support is gradually weakening, which further suppresses the price of lithium carbonate. Overall, in the context of oversupply, the lithium carbonate market will still operate weakly in the short term, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [12][13][14]
国新国证期货早报-20250605
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-06-05 03:42