Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index - defensive wait - and - see; Treasury bonds - short - term optimistic, currently in a volatile state [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Rebar - temporary wait - and - see; Iron ore - temporary wait - and - see; Coking coal and coke - volatile operation [1][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper - cautious trading within a range; Aluminum - light - position short - selling recommended; Nickel - wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies; Tin - weakly volatile; Gold - trading within a range; Silver - trading within a range [1][11][15] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC - weakly volatile; Soda ash - short - selling strategy for the 01 contract; Caustic soda - weakly volatile; Styrene - weakly volatile; Rubber - weakly volatile; Urea - weakly volatile; Methanol - weakly volatile; Polyolefins - wide - range volatility [1][20][22] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - volatile rebound; Apples - volatile operation; PTA - range - bound volatility [1][33][34] - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs - short - selling on rallies; Eggs - short - selling on rallies; Corn - operating within the range of [2300, 2360]; Soybean meal - short - term operation within the range of [2900, 3000], long - term buying on dips; Oils - short - selling on rallies [1][35][40] Core Views - Overall, the market is affected by multiple factors such as international politics, trade policies, and supply - demand fundamentals. Most varieties are in a volatile state, and investors need to pay attention to various factors and adjust their investment strategies accordingly. For example, the impact of US economic data and tariff policies on the financial and commodity markets, and the influence of supply - demand relationships on the prices of various commodities [5][21][36] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Index: Due to factors such as weak US economic data, geopolitical issues, and tariff disturbances, the index is expected to continue its structural market of volatility and sector rotation before the trading volume effectively increases [5] - Treasury Bonds: The bond market is currently in a low - volatility environment, driven by news. The pattern of trading based on NCDs may continue. It is recommended that allocation portfolios buy on dips, while trading portfolios have limited short - term operation space [5] Black Building Materials - Rebar: Although the price rebounded on Wednesday due to the increase in coking coal prices, the demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the inventory may accumulate slightly. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [7] - Iron Ore: The disk is volatile and strong. The supply and demand fundamentals have little impact, and it is mainly affected by macro news. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the disk is expected to be volatile [7][8] - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market is affected by factors such as safety inspections and weak demand, and the price may be weakly volatile. The coke market has not resolved its supply - demand contradictions, and the price still has downward pressure [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The macro - level disturbances are weakening, but the mine - end disturbances continue. The supply shortage pressure is difficult to change, and the consumption is relatively stable. The price is expected to be volatile before the holiday [11] - Aluminum: The supply of bauxite is currently loose, but the impact of mine - end disturbances will gradually appear. The demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [13] - Nickel: The cost is firm, but the medium - and long - term supply is excessive. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and interval trading is recommended [15][16] - Tin: The supply and demand gap is improving, but it is affected by US tariff policies. The price is expected to be volatile, and interval trading is recommended [17] - Gold and Silver: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies, inflation data, and central bank policies, the prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and cautious interval trading is recommended [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply is under pressure, the demand is insufficient, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [20][21] - Caustic Soda: The supply is relatively sufficient in the medium term, and the demand increment is limited. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as alumina production and maintenance [22][23] - Styrene: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as crude oil prices and pure benzene imports [24][25] - Rubber: The demand has not improved significantly, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to inventory and downstream demand [26][27] - Urea: The supply is high, the demand is limited, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as coal prices and fertilizer demand [28][29] - Methanol: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as coal prices and methanol - to - olefins start - up rates [30][31] - Polyolefins: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be widely volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as new capacity investment and downstream demand [31][32] - Soda Ash: The supply is increasing, the downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. A short - selling strategy for the 01 contract is recommended [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton: Although the global supply - demand is still loose, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is expected to drive the price to rebound [33] - Apples: The market is stable, and the price is expected to be volatile [33] - PTA: Affected by the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream demand, the price is under short - term pressure and is expected to be range - bound [34] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [35][36] - Eggs: The short - term demand is weak, and the medium - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [37][38] - Corn: The short - term price has support, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand is tightening, but the price increase is limited by substitutes. It is recommended to buy on dips within the range [39][40] - Soybean Meal: The short - term supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be range - bound. The medium - and long - term price is expected to be strong due to cost and weather factors. It is recommended to operate within the range in the short term and buy on dips after mid - June [40][41] - Oils: Different oil varieties have different supply - demand situations. The short - term prices are expected to be range - bound, and interval trading is recommended. The strategy of expanding the spread of some varieties is temporarily suspended [41][46]
长江期货市场交易指引-20250605
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-06-05 03:50