国泰君安期货所长早读-20250605

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. However, it provides trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - Positive (Trend Intensity 2): Gold, Silver [24] - Slightly Positive (Trend Intensity 1): Copper, Tin [28][43] - Neutral (Trend Intensity 0): Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Lead, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Iron Ore, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Ferrosilicon, Silicomanganese, Coke, Coking Coal, Steam Coal [31][33][36][50][65][69][74][77] - Slightly Negative (Trend Intensity - 1): Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon [54][58] 2. Core Views - Macroeconomic Situation: The US economic data in May was weak. The ADP employment data was far below expectations, and the ISM services index contracted for the first time in a year, increasing market expectations of a Fed rate cut. Trump also pressured the Fed to cut rates [8][25]. - Commodity Market Analysis - Precious Metals: The weak ADP data in the US boosted gold, and silver followed the upward trend [21]. - Base Metals: The weakening of the US dollar supported copper prices. Aluminum was in a sideways - oscillating state, and alumina was running weakly. Zinc was in range adjustment, lead stabilized at a low level, tin stopped falling and rebounded, and the nickel market was supported by short - term costs but suppressed by weak expectations. Stainless steel prices oscillated in a range due to the game between negative feedback and production cuts [26][29][32][35][38][44]. - Energy and Chemicals: Industrial silicon was affected by sentiment with limited upside space, and polysilicon had a weak fundamental pattern. Iron ore, rebar, and hot - rolled coil oscillated widely due to market sentiment and industry data. Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese oscillated widely with the black - metal sector. Coke started the third round of price cuts, and coking coal was affected by news and oscillated strongly. Steam coal stabilized at the bottom stage [56][59][62][66][71][72][75]. - Agricultural Products and Others: Logs oscillated weakly [78]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: The "small non - farm" data in the US was much weaker than expected, leading to a rebound in gold, and silver followed. The trend intensities of gold and silver were both 2, indicating a relatively positive outlook [21][24]. Base Metals - Copper: The weakening of the US dollar supported copper prices. The trend intensity was 1, showing a slightly positive trend. Some copper producers' production decreased, and Japan's copper imports increased [26][28]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum oscillated sideways, and alumina ran weakly. Their trend intensities were both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [29][31]. - Zinc: Zinc was in range adjustment with a trend intensity of 0 [32][33]. - Lead: Lead stabilized at a low level with a trend intensity of 0 [35][36]. - Tin: Tin stopped falling and rebounded with a trend intensity of 1 [38][43]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel was supported by short - term costs but suppressed by weak expectations. Stainless steel prices oscillated in a range due to the game between negative feedback and production cuts. Their trend intensities were both 0 [44][50]. Energy and Chemicals - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon was affected by sentiment with limited upside space, and polysilicon had a weak fundamental pattern. Their trend intensities were both - 1 [56][58]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore oscillated widely due to repeated industry expectations with a trend intensity of - 1 [59]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Rebar and hot - rolled coil were boosted by market sentiment and oscillated widely. Their trend intensities were both 0 [62][65]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese oscillated widely with the black - metal sector. Their trend intensities were both 0 [66][69]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke started the third round of price cuts, and coking coal was affected by news and oscillated strongly. Their trend intensities were both 0 [71][74]. - Steam Coal: Steam coal stabilized at the bottom stage with a trend intensity of 0 [75][77]. Others - Logs: Logs oscillated weakly [78]