总量双周报：指数维持区间震荡-20250605

Macro - The report highlights that changes in tariff policies have led to some exports being advanced, with a potential continuation of this trend until the end of Q2. A similar decline in exports as seen post-pandemic may occur in the second half of the year [3][11] - Core inflation is stabilizing ahead of general inflation, currently at a low level, with core inflation at 0.6% year-on-year and overall inflation at 2% year-on-year. The report notes that inflation remains influenced by oil and other commodity prices, which are still in negative territory [3][11] - There are increasing signs of fiscal stimulus in developed countries, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, with rising military demand in Europe due to geopolitical tensions [3][11] A-Share Strategy - The A-share market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with increased caution among investors due to tariff news affecting market sentiment. The report suggests that tariffs will continue to be a significant factor influencing the market in the near term [3][13] - The manufacturing PMI for May improved slightly to 49.5%, indicating a mild economic recovery, while the new orders index rose to 49.8%. However, the overall market lacks strong catalysts to break out of its current range [3][13][14] - The report recommends maintaining a moderate position in the market and suggests focusing on structural investment opportunities in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, military, and computing, which are expected to show a strong upward trend [3][14] Fixed Income - The report indicates that the bond market is experiencing a controlled adjustment, with opportunities arising from upward adjustments. The current environment suggests that deposit rates are on a downward trend, with the LPR and deposit rates both having been lowered [4][16][18] - It is expected that the yield on 10-year government bonds will fluctuate within the range of 1.60%-1.70%, with a continued downward trend in bond yields anticipated in the medium to long term [4][18] Banking - The banking sector is showing enhanced configuration value driven by both fundamental and funding factors. Recent adjustments in deposit rates are expected to positively impact banks' net interest margins [5][20] - The report notes that credit growth has remained stable, with a rebound in deposit growth. The overall outlook for bank profitability remains positive, supported by stable earnings and improved fee income as capital markets become more active [5][21][22] Real Estate - New home sales have seen a narrowing decline, while second-hand home transaction activity has decreased. The cumulative sales area of new homes in 32 cities showed a year-on-year growth rate of 0.3% as of May 31 [6][24] - The report suggests focusing on valuation recovery opportunities from policy increments in the short term and emphasizes the importance of leading companies with quality resources in core cities for long-term investment [6][24] Non-Banking - The report emphasizes the investment value of leading insurance companies, noting that the performance of the insurance sector is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and disposable income growth [7][26][28] - It highlights that as the equity market gradually recovers, insurance companies are expected to increase their investments in high-growth quality enterprises, which will help mitigate the impact of fixed income market adjustments [7][28]