EBSCN·2025-06-05 05:01Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and transportation sectors [5] Core Viewpoints - The demand for biodiesel is expected to grow significantly due to its environmental benefits and the expansion of its application in various sectors, including aviation and power generation [1][2] - The introduction of mandatory Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) blending requirements in the EU is anticipated to drive up prices for related products in the supply chain [2] - The establishment of export channels for domestic bio-jet fuel marks a significant development for China's biofuel industry, allowing for international market access [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Biodiesel is recognized for its renewable nature and broad raw material sources, contributing to sustainable economic development and energy transition [1] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects that by 2050, 65% of emissions reductions in aviation will come from the use of biofuels [1] 2. Policy Impact - The EU mandates a minimum of 2% SAF in aviation fuel starting January 2025, increasing to 6% by 2030 and 70% by 2050, which is expected to significantly boost the SAF market [2] - China's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of non-grain biomass liquid fuels, including biodiesel and bio-jet fuel, aligning with the country's carbon neutrality goals [1] 3. Market Dynamics - The export volume of domestic kitchen waste oil is projected to grow from 730,000 tons in 2019 to 2.78 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 23% [2] - As of June 4, 2025, the average market prices for domestic waste oil and biodiesel are reported at 6,200 RMB/ton and 7,925 RMB/ton, respectively, showing increases of 36% and 17% from their October 2024 lows [2] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the "three barrels of oil" and oil service sectors, as well as companies benefiting from domestic substitution trends in materials [4]