光大期货有色商品日报-20250605

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper: Overnight LME copper was oscillating strongly, up 0.11% to $9,649/ton, while SHFE copper主力 declined 0.08% to 78,140 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import window remained closed. US economic data was weak, and the probability of a June interest rate cut was low. LME copper inventory decreased, while Comex and SHFE copper inventories increased. Due to the off - season and high prices, downstream procurement was cautious. The weak dollar and potential US tariffs on copper provided some support. The copper price was facing a directional choice, and if it effectively broke through the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton resistance range, it might rise further [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum were oscillating strongly. Alumina supply and demand both increased, and the cost of the ore end provided short - term support. Electrolytic aluminum demand had structural resilience, and the increase in US import aluminum tariffs supported the aluminum price [2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.94%, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.29%. Nickel ore prices were stable. The stainless - steel industry chain had weak demand, and the supply side had production cuts. The new energy sector had weak supply and demand. The market was mainly in a short - term oscillating state, lacking new driving factors [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Copper: Analyzed price trends, macro - economic data, inventory changes, demand situations, and factors affecting prices, and gave price resistance range [1]. - Aluminum: Analyzed price trends, supply - demand relationships of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, and factors supporting the price [2]. - Nickel: Analyzed price trends, inventory changes, and the supply - demand situation of the stainless - steel and new energy industries, and judged the market state [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: Provided price, inventory, and other data of copper in different markets and time points, including changes in spot prices, inventory levels, and import - export profits and losses [3]. - Aluminum: Presented price, inventory, and other data of aluminum, such as changes in spot prices, inventory levels, and import - export profits and losses [4]. - Nickel: Offered price, inventory, and other data of nickel, including changes in electrolytic nickel, nickel iron, and nickel ore prices, and inventory levels [4]. - Zinc: Showed price, inventory, and other data of zinc, including changes in spot prices, inventory levels, and import - export profits and losses [5]. - Tin: Displayed price, inventory, and other data of tin, including changes in spot prices, inventory levels, and import - export profits and losses [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Spot Premium: Included charts of spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - 3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Contained charts of SHFE near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [12][15][18]. - 3.3 LME Inventory: Had charts of LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. - 3.4 SHFE Inventory: Included charts of SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - 3.5 Social Inventory: Contained charts of social inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - 3.6 Smelting Profit: Included charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][45]. 4. Team Introduction - Introduced the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, professional qualifications, and achievements [48][49][50].