光大期货软商品日报（2025年6月5日）-20250605

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The cotton market is expected to remain in a narrow - range oscillation. Internationally, the macro - level is the main influencing factor. After the release of the US ADP employment data, which was significantly lower than expected, concerns about the US economy are rising, the US dollar index is oscillating weakly, and the price of US cotton has declined. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton has been in a range - bound trend, lacking directional drivers. In the future, macro and weather may be variables. Without new disturbances in the short term, Zhengzhou cotton will maintain a narrow - range oscillation [2]. - The sugar market is also expected to oscillate. Future production expectations still suppress the performance of sugar prices, and the raw sugar price remains at a low level. The sugar sales data in Guangxi basically met expectations, with the spot sales progressing well, firm quotes, and a strong basis providing some support for futures prices. In the short term, the price is expected to hover around the current level. Attention should be paid to the national sugar sales data and import data in the medium term [2]. Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Research Views - Cotton: On Wednesday, ICE US cotton dropped 1.51% to 65.05 cents per pound. CF509 closed flat at 13,265 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 13,757 lots to 525,400 lots. The arrival price of cotton in Xinjiang was 14,431 yuan per ton, a decrease of 14 yuan per ton from the previous day. The China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 14,544 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan per ton from the previous day [2]. - Sugar: As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi reached 4.6453 million tons, an increase of 0.5371 million tons year - on - year. The sales - to - production ratio was 71.85%, an increase of 5.39 percentage points year - on - year. In May, the single - month sugar sales were 510,000 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons year - on - year. The monthly industrial inventory was 1.8197 million tons, a decrease of 253,500 tons year - on - year. The spot quotes of Guangxi sugar - making groups were 6,090 - 6,180 yuan per ton, and those of Yunnan sugar - making groups were 5,860 - 5,910 yuan per ton, with only Nanhua Group reducing the price by 10 yuan per ton [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 7 - 9 contract spread was - 220, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract basis was 1,279, a decrease of 14. The arrival price of cotton in Xinjiang was 14,431 yuan per ton, a decrease of 14 yuan per ton, and the national price was 14,544 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan per ton [3]. - Sugar: The 7 - 9 contract spread was 125, an increase of 3. The main contract basis was 397, a decrease of 16. The spot price in Nanning was 6,090 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 6,145 yuan per ton, unchanged [3]. 3. Market Information - Cotton: On June 4, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,977, a decrease of 85 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 374. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions were: 14,431 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,565 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,558 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,773 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The comprehensive load of yarn was 55.1, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 24.9, an increase of 0.2. The comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 50.1, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 31.3, an increase of 0.1 [4]. - Sugar: On June 4, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 6,090 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 6,145 yuan per ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 30,300, a decrease of 431 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 0 [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to cotton and sugar, including the closing prices of the main contracts, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price indices, with historical data from 2021 - 2025 [7][14]. 5. Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for research on sugar, urea, glass, cotton, etc., respectively, and have rich industry experience and many honors [19][20][21].