黑色商品日报（2025年6月5日）-20250605

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain in a weak consolidation phase. The supply - demand fundamentals of rebar have not changed significantly, and the market still anticipates a weakening of supply - demand in the future [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile and weakening trend. Although the futures price has risen, the supply has increased, and the iron - making output has declined, resulting in a situation of mixed long and short factors [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to fluctuate. For coking coal, there are signs of production suspension and restriction in some mines, while the demand side has a downward expectation; for coke, steel mills continue to propose price cuts, but there may be some support on the futures price [1]. - The manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are expected to follow the overall fluctuations of the black sector. Their price increases are mainly driven by market sentiment and cost support, and the supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve significantly in the short term [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures price rebounded, with the 2510 contract closing at 2974 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 1.57%. Spot prices rose, and trading volume increased. This week, the national building materials production decreased by 3.83 tons to 421.93 tons, social inventory decreased by 14.84 tons to 550.47 tons, factory inventory decreased by 3.03 tons to 326.15 tons, and the apparent demand decreased by 0.89 tons to 439.8 tons. It is expected to be in a weak consolidation [1]. - Iron Ore: The futures price of the main contract i2509 rose to 704.5 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 1.3%. Port spot prices increased. Australian shipments declined from the high level, Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and non - mainstream country shipments rebounded from the low level. The blast furnace operating rate increased, but the molten iron output decreased to 241.91 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports and steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased by 122.25 tons and 171.15 tons respectively. It is expected to be volatile and weak [1]. - Coking Coal: The futures price of the 2509 contract rose to 768 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton or 6.82%. The spot price of some coal types decreased. There are signs of production suspension and restriction in some mines, and the spot trading link has cooled down. The coke market has a downward expectation, and the demand for coking coal is weak. It is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Coke: The futures price of the 2509 contract rose to 1367.5 yuan/ton, up 68.5 yuan/ton or 5.27%. The spot price of port coke increased. Steel mills continued to propose a third - round price cut of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, the downstream procurement enthusiasm declined, and some coking enterprises' inventory accumulated. It is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5502 yuan/ton, up 2.12%. The increase was driven by the overall strength of the black sector and the rise in coking coal prices, which boosted market sentiment and increased cost support. The production has begun to rebound week - on - week, and it is expected to follow the overall fluctuations of the black sector [1][3]. - Silicon Iron: The futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5258 yuan/ton, up 1.19%. The rise was driven by the strength of the black sector and the increase in coking coal prices. The production continued to decline, but there are signs of复产 in some areas. It is expected to follow the overall fluctuations of the black sector [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spread: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar is 4.0, a decrease of 19.0; the 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coil is 7.0, unchanged; the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore is 38.5, an increase of 1.5, etc. [4]. - Basis: For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar is 136.0, a decrease of 26.0; the basis of the 10 - contract of hot - rolled coil is 103.0, a decrease of 15.0; the basis of the 09 - contract of iron ore is 70.7, a decrease of 2.4, etc. [4]. - Spot Price: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai is 3110.0, an increase of 20.0; the spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is 3200.0, an increase of 30.0; the spot price of PB powder in Rizhao Port is 732.0, an increase of 6.0, etc. [4]. - Profit and Spread: For example, the rebar futures profit is 84.8, a decrease of 3.1; the long - process profit is 32.4, an increase of 9.2; the short - process profit is - 116.8, an increase of 30.0; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 123.0, a decrease of 1.0, etc. [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Price: The report provides price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][12][15]. - Main Contract Basis: The report provides basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [17][18][21][23]. - Inter - period Contract Spread: The report provides spread trend charts of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [25][29][31][33][34][37]. - Inter - variety Contract Spread: The report provides spread trend charts of inter - variety contracts such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [39][40][41][43]. - Rebar Profit: The report provides profit trend charts of rebar, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [44][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and professional qualifications [51][52].