Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures products including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, providing market trends, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each product [5][7][10]. - It suggests different trading strategies for different products, such as being cautious about bonds, considering long - positions in stock index futures, and having specific trading ideas for various commodities based on their supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment [6][9][11]. Summary by Product Categories Bonds - Last trading day, bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts had respective increases of 0.10%, 0.09%, 0.07%, and 0.04%. The central bank conducted 2149 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 6 billion yuan. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. In May 2025, the number of new A - share accounts increased by 22.86% year - on - year. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [7][8][9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, the gold main contract had a closing price of 782.42 with a decline of 0.09%, and the silver main contract had a closing price of 8,463 with an increase of 0.08%. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is considered to go long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, steel futures rebounded significantly. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, suppressing steel prices. However, the current valuation is low, and there may be a short - term rebound. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to position management [12][13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but it found support at the previous low. It is recommended to buy at low levels, take profit on rebounds, and set stop - losses if the previous low is broken [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose sharply. The supply - demand pattern has not reversed, and it is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to position management [17][18]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. It is recommended to pay attention to call option opportunities for manganese silicon and silicon iron under certain conditions [20][21]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil trended upward. OPEC + plans to increase production in July, but it may be suspended or reversed. The oil price is expected to strengthen, and it is recommended to go long on the main crude oil contract [22][23]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, high - and low - sulfur fuel oils showed different trends. The fuel oil price is expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the main fuel oil contract [24][25][27]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber main contract rose. The supply pressure continues, and the demand improvement is limited. It is recommended to wait for stabilization and then participate in the rebound [28][29]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber main contracts rose. The demand side is still worried, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then consider going long [30][31]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC main contract rose. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [32][34]. Urea - Last trading day, urea main contract closed flat. The cost has decreased, and the demand is weak in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to policy changes [35][36]. PX - Last trading day, PX main contract fell. The short - term supply - demand is tight, but the PXN spread may decline. It is recommended to trade with a range - bound mindset and pay attention to cost and policy changes [37]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA main contract fell. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost has support. It is recommended to trade in a range on dips and pay attention to risk control [38]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol main contract fell. The supply - demand has weakened, but the inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to inventory and policy changes [39][40]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber main contract rose. The downstream demand has weakened, but the cost has support. It is recommended to participate cautiously on dips and pay attention to risk control [41]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle chips main contract fell. The raw material price has adjusted, and the supply - demand has improved. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to cost changes [42][43]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash main contract rose. The long - term supply exceeds demand, and the inventory is sufficient. It is not recommended to chase the short - term rebound [44]. Glass - Last trading day, glass main contract rose. The supply - demand has no obvious driver, and the market sentiment is weak. It is not recommended to chase the short - term rebound [45][46]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda main contract fell. The supply - demand is generally loose, and regional differences are obvious. Attention should be paid to device operation and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [47]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp main contract fell. The supply is high, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to international production cuts and domestic consumption policies [48][49]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply - demand is in excess, and the price is difficult to reverse before large - scale production clearance [50]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper trended upward. The basis for copper price increase still exists, and it is recommended to go long on the main Shanghai copper contract [51][52][53]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The contradiction between the current shortage and the loose expectation exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate downward [54]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The supply - demand is in excess, and the price is expected to be weak [55][56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal closed flat, and soybean oil rose. The soybean supply is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal and pay attention to call option opportunities for soybean oil [57][58]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rebounded. The inventory is expected to increase, and it is recommended to exit the strategy of widening the rapeseed - palm oil spread [59][60][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pull - back [62][63][64]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures trended weakly. The market is waiting and watching due to uncertain Sino - US relations. It is recommended to trade with a light position [65][67][68]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded after hitting a low. The domestic inventory is low, and it is recommended to go long in batches [69][70][71]. Apple - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rebounded after hitting a low. The new - year production is uncertain, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pull - back [72][73]. Live Pigs - Last trading day, the main live pig contract fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the second - fattening participation after the festival and consider the positive spread opportunity for the peak - season contract [73][74]. Eggs - Last trading day, the main egg contract fell. The supply is expected to increase in June, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [75][78]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn starch main contracts rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market, and it is recommended to wait and see [79][80][81]. Logs - Last trading day, the main log contract fell. The fundamentals have no obvious driver, and the market support for the futures price is weak [82][84].
西南期货早间评论-20250605
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-06-05 05:19