欧盟碳市场行情简报（2025年第94期）-20250605

Report Investment Rating - Short-term neutral to bullish, medium-term trading range €67 - 75 [1] Core View - The EUA market is experiencing a mixed situation with both bullish and bearish factors, resulting in a volatile market [1] Auction Information - On June 4, 2025, the EUA auction price was 0.00 million euros, the CBAM certificate price was N/A, the auction volume was N/A, the bid coverage ratio was N/A, and the auction revenue was 0 [2] - On June 3, 2025, the EUA auction price was 70.61 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.13 euros/ton, the auction volume was 324.55 tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.48, and the auction revenue was 22,916 [2] Futures and Spot Information - On June 4, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 72.61 euros/ton (up 0.01%), the trading volume was 22,800 lots (down 0.43), and the open interest was 319,800 lots (unchanged) [3] - On June 4, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 71.67 euros/ton (up 0.01%), the trading volume was 1,464 lots (up 0.79%), the shipping carbon cost was 12.53 US dollars/TEU, and the freight rate accounted for 0.79% [3] Bullish Factors - Trump and Putin had a phone call, and both sides said there was no progress in the Ukraine ceasefire. Russia said it would respond to Ukraine's attacks, and a Kremlin advisor suggested Trump reduce US support for Ukraine [1] Bearish Factors - The latest CoT report shows that investment funds' net long positions decreased by about 940,000 tons last week [1] - Germany's remaining negative load is expected to decline due to increased wind power generation [1] - Saudi Arabia hopes OPEC+ will implement more large-scale oil production increases, and if the current acceleration pace continues, the full production increase can be completed by the end of September, one year ahead of the original plan [1]