碳酸锂日评：国内碳酸锂6月供给预期偏松，国内碳酸锂社会库存量环比减少-20250605

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to domestic new energy vehicle promotion policies, the inventory of domestic lithium carbonate will eventually decline. However, the falling price of lithium carbonate will reduce its production cost, resulting in a pattern of strong front and weak back for lithium carbonate. Investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to the near - term support level of 53,000 - 58,000 and the near - term resistance level of 63,000 - 68,000 [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On June 4, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 61,220 yuan/ton, 61,080 yuan/ton, 61,220 yuan/ton, and 61,220 yuan/ton respectively, showing increases compared to the previous day [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures on June 4, 2025, was 413,239 lots, an increase of 108,078 lots from the previous day. The open interest of the active contract was 245,650 lots, a decrease of 14,008 lots from the previous day [1] - Inventory: The inventory of lithium carbonate was 33,397 tons on June 4, 2025, a decrease of 60 tons from the previous day [1] - Spot Prices: Various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed different price changes on June 4, 2025, compared to the previous day. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1] Industry News and Project Progress - Project Progress: The GTM cylindrical battery project of Hami Haochen Xinghui Technology Co., Ltd. has entered the main construction stage, with a total investment of 1.9 billion yuan. It is expected to put 3 fully automated production lines into operation by the end of September 2025, with an annual output of over 1 million cells and an annual output value exceeding 5 billion yuan. Shengrong Technology's annual 1,000 - ton lithium - battery cathode lithium - supplementing agent project has been put into production, and its annual 2,000 - ton project is under construction, with an expected annual sales of 500 million yuan and annual taxes of 20 million yuan [2] - Supply - related Information: Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes 5.7 - million - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, which may lead to a decline in the price of domestic lithium ore. The production capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium carbonate has increased, and the production volume in June may increase month - on - month. Some production lines will undergo maintenance, and new production capacities will be put into production in the future [2] Other Product Information - Phosphoric Acid Iron and Lithium Iron Phosphate: The monthly average production cost of phosphoric acid iron in China is 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton, and the production volume of lithium iron phosphate in June may increase month - on - month. Multiple lithium iron phosphate projects are under construction or will be put into production [3] - Nickel Sulfate and Other Products: The daily full - cost production cost of MEP in China is 126,000 - 129,000 yuan/ton, and the monthly production cost of high - water - level integrated nickel sulfate production in Indonesia is 114,500 yuan/ton. The export of cobalt from Congo (Kinshasa) has been suspended, affecting the processing fee of cobalt products in China [3] - Other Battery - related Products: The production volume of some battery - related products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and electrolytes may change in June. The export volume of some products may increase, while the production volume of others may decrease [4]