信骅科技股份有限公司：升级为买入评级；加速市场总规模扩张和芯片含量提升

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Aspeed Technology Inc to a Buy rating from Neutral, with a new price target of NT$5,000, up from NT$3,500 [4][6]. Core Insights - Aspeed's growth is expected to be driven by both AI and traditional servers, with significant increases in baseboard management controller (BMC) demand projected [12][9]. - The demand for BMCs from AI servers is forecasted to rise by 81% to 4.3 million units in 2025 and by 59% to 6.8 million units in 2026, representing 26% and 36% of total BMC shipments, respectively [12][19]. - Traditional server BMC shipments are estimated to reach approximately 94% of end market units in 2024 and 100% in 2025, aligning with a healthy run rate [21][2]. Summary by Sections Market Opportunity - Aspeed is positioned to benefit from a substantial increase in content per server, with BMC prices expected to rise from US$12-13 in 2024 to US$40-50 or higher by 2026, driven by new product launches [3][25]. - The introduction of I/O expanders and mini BMCs is anticipated to further enhance revenue potential [25][29]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 1% and 15% respectively, reflecting stronger BMC volume growth and content expansion [33]. - The report estimates revenues of NT$7,980 million for 2025 and NT$9,955 million for 2026, with net earnings expected to reach NT$3,344 million and NT$4,203 million respectively [5][33]. Valuation Metrics - The new price target of NT$5,000 is based on a 45x PE ratio for 2026, reflecting a stronger long-term earnings CAGR forecast of 25% [4][6]. - Aspeed's average PE from mid-2023 to now is noted to be 52x, indicating potential for re-rating as AI server demand expands [4][11]. Competitive Position - Aspeed is expected to maintain its dominant market share of over 70% in server BMCs due to product migration to newer platforms and an expanding product portfolio [9][21]. - The company has adopted a proactive strategy to build inventory for hyperscalers, which is expected to enhance customer relationships and streamline inventory management [23][21].