沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂6月检修产能或环减，国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250605

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's uncertain tariff policies have raised concerns about consumption and financial tax burdens, leading to an earlier expected timing for the Fed to cut interest rates to September/October. The upstream copper mining industry has multiple factors affecting production, while the downstream copper processing industry has a complex situation with some capacity utilization rates changing. Considering the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs, overseas copper mine production fluctuations, low domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be cautiously bullish [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On June 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,200 yuan, up 550 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 111,382 lots, an increase of 29,465 lots; open interest was 195,214 lots, up 12,954 lots; inventory was 31,933 tons, an increase of 529 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,485 yuan, up 40 yuan. The Shanghai copper basis decreased by 510 yuan [2] - London Copper: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on June 4, 2025, was 9,649, up 10.5 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 141,350 tons compared to a previous date. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 48.48, down 3.83; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 109.89, down 6.86 [2] - COMEX Copper: On June 4, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.901, up 0.04. The total inventory was 185,683 tons, an increase of 3,057 tons [2] Upstream - Various copper mines have different production situations. For example, the west side of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine may resume production in late June, while the east side's drainage may last until February. Some mines in Canada and Indonesia have production disruptions or changes due to mechanical failures or export policies. Multiple new projects are expected to increase production in the future, which may affect the domestic copper concentrate production (import) volume in June [4] Downstream - The operating rates of China's refined copper rod and recycled copper rod factories have increased compared to last week, while the operating rate of the copper wire and cable industry has decreased. Due to the combination of the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season, the operating rates of domestic copper processing enterprises may decline in June [4] Investment Strategy - Given the current market situation, it is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the support levels of 74,600 - 76,600 for Shanghai copper, 9,000 - 9,300 for London copper, and the pressure level of 4.3 - 4.5 for US copper [4]