高盛：宏观速览-最新观点与预测

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed [3]. Core Insights - The global real GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.4% year-on-year in 2025, influenced by higher US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty [4][5]. - In the US, real GDP growth is projected to be 1.0% in 2025, with a 35% probability of entering a recession within the next 12 months [4]. - The Euro area is anticipated to see a real GDP growth of 0.9% year-on-year in 2025, affected by elevated trade policy uncertainty [4]. - China is expected to achieve a real GDP growth of 4.6% year-on-year in 2025, despite ongoing challenges in the property market [5]. Economic Forecasts - The LME aluminum price forecast for 2025 has been raised to $2,400 per metric ton, while the 2026 forecast has been lowered to $2,230 per metric ton [1]. - Core inflation in the US is expected to rise to 3.6% year-on-year by the end of 2025, driven by higher tariffs [4]. - The unemployment rate in the US is projected to increase to 4.5% by the end of 2025 [4]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to implement a series of rate cuts, reaching a policy rate of 1.75% by July 2025 [4]. Regional Insights - In the US, consumer spending and business investment are anticipated to be negatively impacted by elevated policy uncertainty and rising tariffs [4]. - The Euro area is expected to experience a cooling in services inflation, contributing to a decline in core inflation to 2.1% by the end of 2025 [4]. - In China, inflation is projected to remain very low, with CPI inflation expected to end the year at 0% and PPI inflation at -2.1% [5].