广金期货策略早餐-20250605

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For copper, the market is influenced by multiple factors. The US government's policies may intensify the global supply - demand tightness, but domestic factors like canceled photovoltaic projects and the off - season in the copper industry reduce the upward momentum. For protein粕, the market is complex with different trends in related products, and the future trend of bean粕 depends on factors such as US soybean weather. For petroleum asphalt, the demand is weak due to rainfall and project funds, and the supply is increasing, so the price is expected to be under pressure in the long - term [1][3][4][6][8][10]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - Intraday and Mid - term Views: Intraday view is in the range of 77000 - 78600, and the mid - term view is in the range of 60000 - 90000. The reference strategy is to adopt an oscillating operation idea [1]. - Core Logic: Macroscopically, there are concerns about high tariffs on imported copper. Supply - wise, the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine will resume operation at the end of June, and the global copper concentrate supply - demand tightness persists. Demand - wise, the开工 rate of refined copper rod enterprises is expected to rise slightly this week but may decline in June. Consumption in different regions is weak. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory decreased and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased on June 4 [1][2]. - Outlook: The US government's policies may exacerbate the supply - demand tightness, but domestic factors reduce the upward momentum [3]. Protein粕 - Core Logic: This week, the meal market oscillated. The pressure from domestic traders' large - scale purchases of South American soybeans may have been released. The weather speculation of US soybeans before the end of August may help bean粕 2509 build a bottom. The vegetable oil market has different trends, affected by policies and planting progress [4]. - International Situation: US soybean planting is going smoothly. The expected soybean arrivals in June, July, and August are 1200, 950, and 850 million tons respectively. Canadian rapeseed planting is faster than usual, and the global rapeseed production is expected to increase in the 25/26 season [5]. - Outlook: Pay attention to the USDA and MPOB monthly reports next week. Bean粕 2509 will generally oscillate, and it is advisable to consider selling out - of - the - money put options on the near - month contracts [6]. - Intraday and Mid - term Views: Intraday, bean粕 2509 oscillates in the range of [2900, 3000]. Mid - term, it searches for a bottom at a relatively low position in the range of [2800, 3100]. The reference strategy is to continue holding the sold out - of - the - money put option of bean粕 2509 - P - 2850 [7]. Petroleum Asphalt - Intraday and Mid - term Views: Intraday, it runs under pressure, and mid - term, it oscillates weakly. The reference strategy is to sell high [8]. - Core Logic: Supply - side, local refineries' losses in asphalt production have deepened, but the domestic asphalt plant operating rate has increased. Demand - side, due to rainfall and project funds, the demand is weak. Inventory - wise, the plant inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, and the social inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. The cost is affected by the oil price, which has some upward potential but also faces pressure from OPEC+ [8][9]. - Outlook: The release of asphalt's rigid demand is less than expected. In the long - term, with the increase in supply, if the oil price falls, the asphalt price is expected to follow a weak trend [10].