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利率周报：经济修复分化，债市机会或来自调整-20250605
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-06-05 08:03
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market opportunities may come from adjustments. If no unexpected events occur, the 10Y Treasury bond is expected to trade in a narrow range of 1.6% - 1.8% by the end of the year, and the bond market may lack trending opportunities [2]. - The current economic operation is in a neutral range. Exports are resilient, consumption has improved year - on - year, but investment remains sluggish. The marginal change in the economy compared to 2024 may lie in consumption. However, due to over - capacity, PPI is still under pressure, and combined with negative real estate investment and international energy prices, black - series prices are particularly low. The bond market is not likely to enter a major bear market in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro News - The central bank did not conduct open - market Treasury bond trading operations in May. In May, it carried out 700 billion yuan of repurchase operations, but due to the maturity of 900 billion yuan of existing operations, it achieved a net liquidity withdrawal of 200 billion yuan [11]. - At the end of the first quarter of 2025, the balance of consumer loans was 21.02 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%, and an increase of 32.1 billion yuan in the first quarter. The balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 265.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%, and RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan in the first quarter [12]. - From January to April this year, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 1.4%, 0.6 percentage points faster than in the first quarter. The revenues of large - scale light - industry enterprises reached 7.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%, and the profits were 419.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [12][13]. - The US tariff policy is in a judicial tug - of - war. The Fed has maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.5% for the third consecutive time, and may face "difficult trade - offs" in the future [17]. 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data: Strong Consumption, Stable Production, and Weak Prices 3.2.1 Consumption - As of May 25, the daily average retail volume of passenger cars was 60,800, a year - on - year increase of 26.4%, and the daily average wholesale volume was 75,900, a year - on - year increase of 14.4% [15]. - As of May 23, the weekly retail volumes of refrigerators/freezers, air conditioners, and washing machines were 741,400, 1.6127 million, and 655,700 units respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 8.1%, + 65.6%, and - 20.5%. The weekly retail revenues were 1.892 billion yuan, 3.901 billion yuan, and 1.246 billion yuan respectively, with month - on - month changes of + 2.6%, + 70.4%, and - 44.0% [23]. - As of June 1, the total movie box office in the past seven days was 480 million yuan, a month - on - month increase of 95.8% and a year - on - year increase of 17.5% [27]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of May 25, the weekly container throughput of ports was 7 million TEUs, a month - on - month increase of 3.6%. The CCFI composite index on May 30 was 1118, a month - on - month increase of 0.9% [29]. - The Baltic Dry Index on May 30 was 1418, with a weekly average of 1342, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The Baidu Migration Index on June 1 was 674, with a weekly average of 600, a year - on - year increase of 37.8% [33]. - As of May 25, the weekly number of civil aviation flights was 1.21 million, a month - on - month increase of 7.7%. The average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities on May 31 was 34.666 million person - times, and the weekly average was 39.258 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [37]. - As of May 25, the weekly postal express pick - up volume was 4.15 billion pieces, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%, and the delivery volume was 4.22 billion pieces, a month - on - month increase of 6.4%. As of June 1, the weekly railway freight volume was 78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 52.008 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 6.14% [43][47]. 3.2.3 Operating Rates - As of May 28, the operating rate of blast furnaces of major steel enterprises was 77.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. As of May 29, the asphalt operating rate was 24.0%, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% [52]. - As of May 29, the soda ash operating rate was 79.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%, the PVC operating rate was 72.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. As of May 30, the average operating rates of PX and PTA were 82.1% and 74.2% respectively, with month - on - month increases of 6.2% and 1.1% [56]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of May 29, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 2.31 million square meters, with month - on - month increases of 8.9%, 18.3%, and 6.7% in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities respectively. The number of transactions was 23,000 units, with month - on - month increases of 6.9%, 17.0%, and - 0.6% in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities respectively [64]. - As of May 23, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 9 sample cities was 1.921 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 7.5% in May. As of May 25, the listing volume index of second - hand housing in the country was 16.0, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 57.8% in May. The listing price index was 154.6, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.1% in May [70]. - As of June 1, the number of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities was 552, a month - on - month increase of 35.0%. The floor price per square meter was 49,504 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 98.3%, and the land premium rate was 4.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 25.5% [74]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of May 30, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.7 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. The average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.3 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 7.8 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% [75][80]. - The commodity price BPI on June 1 was 856, a decrease of 2.8% compared to the beginning of the year. The price of thermal coal at northern ports on May 30 was 615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.1% compared to the beginning of the year. The spot price of rebar on May 30 was 3077.1 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The spot price of iron ore was 756.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0%. The spot price of glass was 14.4 yuan/square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% [80][83][84]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets: Stable Capital Interest Rates - On May 30, overnight Shibor was 1.47%, down 3.50BP from May 26. R001 was 1.57%, up 1.78BP; R007 was 1.70%, up 0.12BP. DR001 was 1.48%, down 2.91BP; DR007 was 1.66%, up 1.00BP. IBO001 was 1.51%, down 3.57BP; IBO007 was 1.58%, up 12.78BP [88]. - Most Treasury bond yields declined. On May 30, the 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year yields were 1.46%/1.56%/1.67%/1.89% respectively, up 1.1BP/down 0.2BP/down 5.0BP/up 0.3BP compared to May 23. The yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year state - owned development bonds were 1.54%/1.62%/1.70%/2.07% respectively, up 1.5BP/up 1.5BP/down 1.6BP/down 0.1BP compared to May 23 [98]. - On May 30, the yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year local government bonds were 1.52%/1.66%/1.87% respectively, up 3.0BP/down 1.7BP/up 1.2BP compared to May 23. The yields of 1 - month/1 - year AAA and AA + inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.56%/1.70%/1.59%/1.74% respectively, down 6.1BP/up 0.2BP/down 6.1BP/up 0.2BP compared to May 23 [102]. - The central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB on May 30 were 7.18 and 7.20 respectively, down 71 pips and up 58 pips compared to May 23 [105]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior: Interest - rate Bond Funds Extend Duration, Credit - bond Funds Keep Duration Stable - As of May 25, the net - loss rate of public wealth management products of wealth management companies was about 1.08%, a decrease of 0.89BP from the beginning of the year, and it has dropped to the lowest level this year [107]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure interest - rate bond funds has shown a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. On May 29, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 4.1 years, and the estimated average duration was about 4.6 years, an increase of about 0.09 years compared to the previous week [110]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure credit - bond funds has shown a slight fluctuation trend. On May 29, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 2.0 years, and the estimated average duration was about 2.1 years, a decrease of about 0.05 years compared to the previous week [111]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - The bond market opportunities may come from adjustments. When the 10Y Treasury bond yield reaches the upper limit of the range, extend the duration; when it approaches the lower limit, reduce the duration, and conduct 10BP - level band operations [2]. - In June, the bond market may face several challenges. It is recommended to wait until the second half of June for interest - rate bond band opportunities. The total maturity of inter - bank certificates of deposit in June will reach 4.17 trillion yuan, a record high in recent years. The scale of wealth management products may decline seasonally in the second half of June, and the scale may increase significantly in July due to the reduction of deposit interest rates [2]. - The yield curve of credit bonds within 5 years may flatten. It is recommended to focus on credit bonds with a yield of over 2%. It is also recommended to pay more attention to Hong Kong - listed financial stocks, fixed - income + Hong Kong - listed dividend stocks, and continue to be bullish on Hong Kong - listed banks [116].