华福固收：零基预算改革，过程比结果重要

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current fiscal revenue and expenditure of local governments are in a tight - balance situation. The traditional "base + growth" budget model has drawbacks such as rigid fund allocation and resource waste. Zero - based budgeting, which focuses on actual needs and financial conditions, can improve the efficiency of fiscal resource allocation. The reform of zero - based budgeting is a gradual process, and it is expected to be gradually promoted across the country. The process is more important than the result, aiming to ensure rigid expenditures and support effective industrial development and upgrading [2][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Zero - based Budget Reform Background - Local governments face a prominent contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure. In 2024, the national government - funded budget revenue was 6.209 trillion yuan, a 12.2% decrease from the previous year, and the state - owned land use right transfer revenue decreased by 16%. Compared with the peak in 2021, it has decreased by nearly 3.6 trillion yuan. The expenditure pressure comes from various aspects, such as the "Three Guarantees" and debt repayment [10]. - The traditional incremental budget management model cannot meet the new situation, and relevant policies have emphasized the use of zero - based budgeting concepts to break the rigid expenditure pattern [11]. - The Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in 2024 proposed to deepen the zero - based budget reform as a core task of fiscal and tax system reform, and the 2025 Government Work Report supported local zero - based budget reform [12]. 3.2 Zero - based Budget Reform: Meaning, Progress, and Challenges 3.2.1 Meaning and Advantages - The traditional "base + growth" budget model has the advantage of improving budget management efficiency and stability, but it also has disadvantages such as rigid fund allocation and resource waste. Zero - based budgeting, on the other hand, considers actual needs and financial conditions, breaking the "base" concept and rigid expenditure pattern to improve resource allocation efficiency [29][30]. 3.2.2 Zero - based Budget Reform Progress and Current Situation: Preliminary Exploration - Reform Progress Bar: The concept of zero - based budgeting was proposed in the 1950s and was implemented in the United States in the 1970s. In China, some localities piloted it in 1993. In the current budget - tight context, the zero - based budget concept has returned to the reform agenda, with central guidance provided in 2021 and 2024 [35]. - Provincial - level Reform: Provinces such as Guangdong, Guizhou, Shaanxi, and Tianjin explored earlier, and Anhui, Jiangsu, and Guangxi have also carried out reforms in recent years. Different provinces have different focuses and intensities in reform [3][36]. - City - and County - level Reform: They refer to the provincial reform plans and combine local conditions. For example, Wuxi has formed a zero - based budget model through three - year reform practice [37]. - Reform Case: Anhui - Anhui Zero - based Budget 1.0 Version: In 2022, Anhui launched the reform, focusing on industries and technology. In 2023, it "squeezed" out over 800 million yuan of ineffective fiscal funds at the provincial level. The number of budget items decreased, and the general public budget expenditure at the provincial level decreased. The reform also led to changes in the structure of fiscal revenue and expenditure [43][44][47]. - Anhui Zero - based Budget 2.0 Version: In 2025, Anhui launched the 2.0 version, extending the reform to the county - level and to areas such as people's livelihood and public services, and promoting cost - based budget performance management [59][60]. 3.2.3 Comparison of Key Points of Zero - based Budget Reform Schemes in Different Provinces - Reform of Budget Preparation Methods: This includes project expenditure refinement, industry - specific reform directions, and the establishment of project sorting mechanisms. For example, Jiangsu requires project funds to be refined, and Anhui focuses on industries and technology first [64][66][67]. - Strengthening Fiscal Resource Coordination: Non - tax revenue does not determine budget expenditures, and special funds have clear management regulations. For example, Jiangsu implements the "two - line management" of non - tax revenue, and Anhui sets a maximum three - year execution period for special funds [68]. - Deepening Supporting System Reforms: For example, Hunan proposes to establish a system to reduce fiscal expenditure standards and promote project life - cycle management [69]. - Standardizing Budget Management: Hunan proposes not to link budget arrangements with certain revenue indicators and to strengthen the management of treasury temporary payments [70]. 3.2.4 Comparison of Reform Effects - Anhui significantly reduced ineffective policies and expenditures after the reform in 2022, and the general public budget expenditure at the provincial level decreased in 2023. - Guangxi reduced "Three Publics and Two Fees" and increased transfer payments to cities and counties [77][79]. 3.2.5 Challenges in Reform - High requirements for budget preparation personnel: Zero - based budgeting requires high - frequency evaluation of project rationality and life - cycle tracking, which is time - consuming and requires a large number of professional personnel [82]. - Reform resistance: It may change the original expenditure structure and face resistance from some groups [82]. - Lack of supporting measures: The reform requires the coordinated advancement of relevant laws, regulations, and information construction, but currently, the reform synergy is insufficient [82]. 3.3 Reform Outlook The zero - based budget reform is a gradual process, and it is expected to be gradually promoted across the country. Different regions will have different progress based on their economic and political environments. The reform should be carried out incrementally, starting with strict approval of new projects and performance evaluation of existing projects [4][85].